It is no secret that since the opening of trading on March 24, 2022, we have been living in a “new reality”, in the conditions of sanctions and counter-sanctions. And yet we continue to pay attention to what is happening in the United States. What about the meaning? None. Here is the dynamics of the total return (!) indices of the “net” RTS and S&P500 since 03/31/2022
Dynamics are specially taken in one currency – the US dollar. Is there a connection? Yes, there is none, which is confirmed by the cross-correlation function of relative increments
When will the connection appear? Well, if on the first graph above in the next couple of months the SP500TR confidently breaks the abscissa axis from top to bottom, then with a high probability RTSTR will go there as well. Until that happens, the search for connection is nothing more than “looking for a black cat in a dark room, especially when it’s not there.”
