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Analysis of EUR / USD. April 7. Three serious problems of the European Union may slow down the growth of the European currency


The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous and looks quite understandable. At the moment, the structure of waves a — b — c — d — e looks fully completed and complete. The alternative variant of wave counting, which assumes the a-b-c structure, which also looks fully completed, looks absolutely clear and understandable. Thus, in any case, I now expect the construction of at least three wave upward structure. So far, it is difficult to understand how strong and extended the new structure will turn out to be. The demand for the European currency has been on the rise again in recent days, so everything will depend on how long it persists. I am not considering the option with the complication of the downtrend part of the trend starting on January 6. However, if the instrument makes a successful breakout of the March 31 low, it may require adjustments to the current wave counting. Meanwhile, the news background for the Euro / Dollar instrument is now very, very controversial. On the one hand, at the beginning of this week there was not really a single important report or event. On the other hand, more and more analysts continue to pay attention to the fact that the pace of economic recovery in the United States is much higher than the pace of economic recovery in the European Union. Thus, this is rather bad news for the European currency, which absolutely does not correspond to the current wave counting, which implies a further increase in the euro quotes. The third wave of coronavirus has also begun in the European Union. Some countries have already introduced tough restrictions, some are on the verge of this step. It should also be remembered that the problems with vaccination in the European Union have also not disappeared over the past weeks. Vaccination rates are still low, at least compared to the US, Israel or the UK. The EU government has been heavily criticized for this. Recently, problems with vaccines have reappeared. Not only are they not enough to ensure high rates of vaccination of the population, but also the vaccine of the manufacturer AstraZeneca is constantly banned for use, then studied, or not recommended. It’s all about the same blood clots that occurred after the vaccine was used in about 40-50 people across the EU, including the UK. Therefore, some countries have suspended vaccination with this drug, and some do not recommend it to people under the age of 60. However, all this only slows down the overall process even more. In addition to everything, there are problems with the Recovery Fund, which cannot be formed and distributed among all EU members, which again greatly hinders the recovery of the European economy. Based on the analysis, I now expect to build a new upward wave, possibly the first in the new uptrend section. I do not see any sense in defining goals so far, since a new trend segment is just emerging. It will be necessary to see if a new upward wave will develop. So far, I recommend buying an instrument for each MACD “up” signal. The wave counting of the uptrend section is still quite complete, five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend also looks quite complete. – Source: InstaForex

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