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Analysis of EUR / USD. June 10th. The ECB left its rate and PEPP program unchanged and raised its GDP forecasts for the next few


The wave counting on the 4-hour chart for the Euro / Dollar instrument has gotten a little confused recently, however, the move of quotations from the lows reached on June 4 preserves the integrity of the current wave counting. We received a three-wave wave 4, and if the current wave counting is correct, then at this time the supposed wave 5 of the uptrend section has begun to form. During the current day, the instrument changed its direction of movement several times, but in general, the amplitude did not exceed 25 basis points, which is very small, given the importance of the news background. The internal wave counting of the supposed wave 3 remains highly doubtful, but still 5 waves are clearly visible inside this wave. Thus, at the moment I still see no reason to make adjustments to the current wave counting. At this time, I cannot conclude that the instrument has started a serious decline, therefore, the upward wave is still being built. And if so, I continue to expect further price increases. During Thursday, the news background was very strong and important, however, it did not provoke the expected reaction from the markets. During the day, the instrument showed signs of the beginning of a strong movement, but these signs remained only signs. Thus, the wave counting has not changed at all. US inflation rose to 5.0% y / y in May, although markets had expected no more than 4.7% y / y. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index was 0.6%. Core inflation has also increased, which does not take into account changes in fuel and food prices. It rose to 3.8% y / y and 0.7% m / m. Thus, the dollar experienced a slight shock in the middle of the day. However, almost immediately the markets switched to the results of the ECB meeting, in which there were some optimistic notes. Key parameters of monetary policy remained the same. All rates, amounts of incentive programs and terms remained unchanged. However, the ECB said the pace of asset purchases will accelerate over the next few months. In addition, the forecasts for the eurozone’s GDP for the next few years have been improved. The ECB now expects the economy to grow 4.6% in 2021, 4.7% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. This was stated by the President of the ECB Christine Lagarde during a press conference. “We expect the economic recovery over the medium term to be supported by stronger global and domestic demand and continued monetary and fiscal policies,” Lagarde said. Thus, the increase in forecasts for the EU GDP increased the demand for the European currency, which, according to the results of all events, remained approximately in the same place where it was before. Based on the analysis, I still expect the instrument quotes to go up, although the wave counting raises some questions at this time. I still recommend buying the instrument with targets located around 23 figures and the level of 1.2340 for each MACD signal “up”, however, any new decline in quotes may lead to the need to make adjustments to the current wave counting. The wave counting of the uptrend section is still quite complete. The section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, took on a corrective and also completely completed form. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new uptrend section continues and four of its waves have already ended. – Source: InstaForex

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