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Analysis of GBP / USD. the 14 th of July. British inflation does not want to lag behind American


For the Pound / Dollar instrument, the wave counting began to differ from the Euro / Dollar. Presumably, the construction of a new upward set of waves has begun. In the last few days, at least, the instrument has been rising more than falling. Three waves in this new uptrend segment are already visible, but wave c may turn out to be much longer than it looks now. I also note that the instrument continues to move mainly in corrective structures, which does not make it easier to work with it. Nevertheless, one has to rely on the wave counting that is available. According to it, it is more likely that the instrument quotes will continue to rise with targets located near the high of wave e, the last wave of the previous uptrend. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through waves b or c will indicate the complication of the entire downward trend section, which began on June 1. The Pound / Dollar instrument gained about 90 basis points during Wednesday, after which the quotes began to move away from the highs reached. However, the news background of today can be interpreted in different ways. In the morning, a report was released in the UK, which showed that British inflation continues to accelerate as well as American. Thus, if the dollar grew yesterday, today it is the British pound. Everything is logical. However, there is another possible version. Yesterday the markets did not quite rightly buy the dollar, as rising inflation is more bad for the economy than good. Then today they started to win back yesterday’s positions, and British inflation has nothing to do with it. One way or another, but the last few days, the instrument has often changed direction. The consumer price index in the UK has already increased to 2.5% y / y, and core inflation – to 2.3% y / y. Meanwhile, in the UK, for the seventh day in a row, the number of coronavirus cases over 30,000 is noted. The last day became an anti-record one since the beginning of January 2021, as 36.6 thousand cases of the disease were recorded. This is despite the fact that already 80% of British adults have received at least one vaccine. Already on July 19, all restrictions related to the pandemic should be lifted in the country. But in Europe at the same time, some countries, on the contrary, are tightening quarantine. These are Greece, Holland, Spain and Portugal, which have also seen an increase in cases in recent weeks. Markets have so far reacted very modestly to these sad events. They are much more interested in Jerome Powell’s evening speech in the US Congress. At this time, the wave pattern has cleared up a bit, but remains very complex. The construction of the downtrend is supposedly completed. Thus, I recommend now to buy the instrument again with the targets located above the 40th figure, for each MACD signal “up”. If the instrument makes a successful attempt to break through the 40th figure, then the upward set of waves will take on a more convincing form. The upward part of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken on a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks rather difficult, as there is no impulse movement now. At this time, presumably, the construction of the downward part of the trend has also been completed, so we can expect a new increase in quotations to the maximum of wave e. – Source: InstaForex


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