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Analysts warn of the risk of a systemic banking crisis in Russia




MOSCOW, Dec 21 – PRIME. Russian banks may face a systemic crisis with a high degree of probability until the end of November 2021, the Izvestia newspaper writes, citing the forecast of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. Banks expect an increase in Russian loan delinquencies in the near future Experts point to three indicators of an approaching crisis – an increasing imbalance between borrowers’ debt service costs and their income levels, an increase in unemployment to eight or nine years ago, and a decrease in the share of absolutely liquid ruble assets in total assets financial organizations with the elimination of seasonal effects. Experts note that it will be possible to state the onset of a systemic banking crisis if one of three conditions is met. These include an increase in the share of problem loans to 10% or more in the total portfolio of the sector, panic among depositors and a massive freeze of client funds, reorganization or nationalization of more than 10% of banks, or their additional capitalization for a total amount of at least 2% of GDP. All third-party experts , interviewed by the publication, agreeing that the problems in the sector have worsened, expressed confidence that there are no grounds for forecasting the crisis yet. This position, in particular, is adhered to by the rating agencies Fitch and ACRA, as well as by the Center for Strategic Research. The Central Bank also does not believe that there are serious threats to the stability of the banking sector. See also: The US said that the ruble awaits in the new year

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