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Bitcoin at a low start


The return of bitcoin above the lows of $ 32,800 – 33,000 on Friday formed a “bear trap” and now the bulls have all the cards in their hands in order to play the scenario of additional formation of an impulse up to the upper border of the consolidation of $ 30,000 – 40,000, which has been going on since May. Little remains – to suppress the remaining resistance by $ 34,600 in order to avoid a pullback to $ 33,000. It is quite possible that the latter will still have to be due to concerns about the release of tomorrow’s statistics on consumer prices in the US, which will affect the perception of the timing of the Fed’s withdrawal of the asset repurchase program. , which will predetermine the attitude of investors to risk in general, including in relation to cryptocurrencies. Judging by FOREX, the chances of selling the dollar and, as a result, buying bitcoin are high. The data will be released on Tuesday, July 13 at 15-30. The bulls in the cryptocurrency market have time. There are still six days left until 16,240 BTC is unlocked in the Grayscale Investments (GBTC) bitcoin trust (July 18). Starting from this date, according to JPMorgan Chase, it is impossible to exclude the exit from this instrument of its large holders, which could become a catalyst for the resumption of downward dynamics with a target of $ 20,000. But rather, the risks do not stem from GBTC (JPMorgan does not agree with QCP Capital, Kraken), but on the likelihood of a general risk aversion under the influence of signals from the Fed. And those, judging by the emerging makrostatistiki will appear only in August-September. While on-chain data favors buyers. The so-called Liveliness ration, calculated by Glassnode. has recently been showing a higher rate of accumulation by holders compared to the rate of continued selling at a loss by short-term players. Of the 140,000 bitcoins that entered exchanges from April to June, 28% have already returned back to cold wallets. According to Santiment, a record 10.91% of the total supply of the first cryptocurrency has accumulated on the addresses of whales with 10,000 – 100,000 BTC, on wallets with balances over 100,000 BTC – the maximum for 27 months 3.64% of the issue. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio indicator continues to update lows, indicating significant potential for buyers to come back. Most likely, most of them will continue to take a wait-and-see attitude – by July 26, the SEC will submit a report on the protection of investors on bitcoin exchanges, the current pressure on Binance serves as a good “warm-up” for this. Even the Fed mentioned the risks for individuals from investing in cryptocurrencies in the latest financial stability report. But again, in the short term, the market is still positioned to unleash growing momentum .____________________ Aaron Chomsky, Head of Investment, ICB Fund


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