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Can the ruble break the annual trend



The ruble on Monday showed the third session of strong growth in a row, having gone to 74.30 per dollar. The strengthening against the euro is not so active, but more prolonged. Here, too, the Russian currency managed to reach the round milestone of 90. With the help of oil, the ruble won the important local battle of 76, which we talked about in the past weeks. Once below this level, the ruble experienced stronger buying. Last Friday, the Russian currency managed to break through the dollar’s defenses at 75, which once again confirmed how easily the rate passes intermediate levels within the 73-76 range. Apart from this, one should not forget about the seasonality favorable for the ruble, since very often the ruble feels better than in similar market sentiments at the end of the year. Together, these factors can very quickly take USDRUB to the 73.0 region this week. However, further attention needs to be paid to how events will develop. A quick passage of support at 72.50 will make 70 the next bullish target for the ruble. If the recent level of volatility persists, reaching the round mark may be a matter of a couple of weeks. EURRUB also runs predominantly in the last months in the range of 88.50 – 92.50. A reversal from the upper border at the end of January took the pair closer to the lower level rather quickly. Further, attention is focused on support at 88.50. The ability to decisively go down promises to be the forerunner of a powerful impulse to decline to 86 or even 85. The slippage may turn into a rather long wandering at the occupied levels. Fixing below 73 will signal a breakdown of the annual uptrend, triggering a long correction. For the euro, the breaking point of the upward trend is at 86.50 ._______________ Alexander Kuptsikevich, Lead Analyst, FxPro

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