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Forex Traiding

Commodity prices are steadily going up, the markets are waiting for John Powell’s speech in the US Congress. USD, NZD, AUD overview



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-02-22 18: 04:42 Demand for raw materials continues to grow, April WTI futures for the first time in a year exceeded $ 60 per barrel, copper futures are at their highest since 2011, iron ore is one step away from 10-year Markets will come out of the low volatility regime, most likely on Tuesday, when Fed Chairman George Powell speaks to the US Congress, on Wednesday he will speak again, and the Congress will consider his speech, including from the standpoint of working out a final decision on and a 1.9 trillion stimulus package that the House of Representatives is expected to approve this week. NZDUSD The RBNZ will hold a monetary policy meeting Thursday, which is expected to revise its forecasts for GDP, employment and inflation. The RBNZ is expected to see a significant improvement in the economic situation in the medium term, but it will make it clear that there is still a long way to go before the removal of stimuli. The economic downturn in New Zealand was significantly less than expected back in November. ANZANZ Bank believes that the GDP forecast that the RBNZ proposed in November could be significantly improved. Expectations of fixing positive changes and the expected correction of forecasts will pull the kiwi up, even if the demand for risk slows down. The target price is still below the long-term average, this is a result of the lagging of New Zealand bond yields, but this factor is likely to become more bullish in the coming days. years, however, it is not yet possible to count on stronger growth. The economy of New Zealand is more sensitive to an increase in the trade-weighted rate of the national currency than in Australia, so it is possible that the RBNZ, facing the threat of strengthening the kiwi, will take some steps that will reduce its attractiveness. employment, nor a slowdown in PMI growth. The employment report showed that the labor market has not yet recovered, over the year the number of employed fell by 0.4%, or 45.6 thousand. January growth turned out to be worse than forecast, but there is also a positive parameter – the number of part-time workers has decreased and the number of full-time workers has increased, which can be regarded as a rather important positive factor. On the negative side, there was a fairly strong decline in the number of hours worked. The CFTC report is bullish, the short position fell 202 million to 219 million, the dynamics are positive, but it does not explain why the Australian is growing at such a rate. Perhaps the reason is that the market regards the hawkish orientation of the RBA higher than the Fed, which is reflected in the outstripping growth in bond yields. The real yield on 10-year US bonds rose by about 21p in February. (as of the beginning of the week), while similar Australian bonds are growing much faster, growth of 21p. was fixed only over the past week. Be that as it may, the target price is slightly behind the spot price in growth rates, but is directed confidently upward, which allows us to predict the continuation of the bullish trend. The obvious target is 0.8113, and, strictly speaking, there is no reason to doubt that it unattainable. Expectations of a positive mass vaccination result suggest that Australia, which is now ending summer, will avoid a seasonal outbreak of covid or its scale will be milder than that of the northern hemisphere, which means that the Australian economy will receive additional preferences. Plus, there is a strong recovery in China, which, however, at the moment it does not affect the quotes, since it does not publish any macroeconomic statistics due to the two-week New Year celebration. We assume that the bullish momentum will continue, the target is 0.8130, the next 0.8290. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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