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EUR / USD. January 20th. COT report. Information calm. Joe Biden’s uninteresting inauguration. Tasteless inflation in the European Union



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-20 10: 58: 39EUR / USD – 1H. Good afternoon, dear traders! The EUR / USD pair on January 19 continued the growth process and completed the consolidation above the downtrend line. Thus, the mood of traders has changed from “bearish” to “bullish”, and the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level 76.4% – 1.2182. After two weeks of decline, the European currency is again showing signs of desire for growth. The information background of the last days and even weeks was not the most important. There were many events, but which of these events ultimately influenced the movement of the euro-dollar pair? A lot of things happened in America and separately in Washington. But is it possible to say that it was thanks to these events that the dollar grew in early 2021? Rather, it should have been the other way around. The dollar should have declined amid a new political crisis that can only be resolved today, when Joe Biden is inaugurated. By and large, there is nothing special about this procedure. The first decisions of Biden-President, the list of which has even been published, will be important. Biden is going to celebrate some of Donald Trump’s decisions and immediately begin work on getting out of the four crises in which the country plunged under the Republican. Donald Trump recorded a farewell video and is leaving the White House today. Also today in the European Union will be released quite an interesting report on inflation, which does not please the buyers of the euro for about six months, because it is below zero. However, according to forecasts, it is not necessary to wait for its acceleration now. Thus, inflation will remain deflation. EUR / USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the pair quotes, after the formation of a bullish divergence in the MACD indicator, reversed in favor of the European currency and began the process of growth towards the correction level 200.0% – 1, 2353. Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 161.8% will work in favor of the US dollar and resume falling in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% – 1.1729. So far, the two junior charts indicate the likely growth of the euro currency. EUR / USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the EUR / USD pair fell to the correction level of 323.6% – 1.2079 and rebound from it. Thus, the growth of the European currency can now resume in the direction of the correction level 423.6% – 1.2496. The third chart indicates a very probable growth of the pair. EUR / USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR / USD pair has completed the consolidation above the “narrowing triangle”, which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Fourth chart. News overview: On January 19, one report for two was released in the United States and the European Union. The ZEW Business Sentiment Index was slightly higher than traders expected. In part, he could help the euro to grow over the past day. News calendar for the US and the EU: EU – Consumer Price Index (10-00 GMT). On January 20, the US and EU calendars remain almost empty. Only inflation will be released in Europe. Well, the inauguration of Joe Biden. COT (Commitments of traders) report: The activity of major players at the beginning of 2021 remains rather weak. At least they don’t open a lot of new contracts, preferring a cautious strategy. According to the latest COT report, speculators have opened 2731 Long contracts and closed 6042 Short contracts. Thus, their sentiment sharply became more “bullish”. Let me remind you that the COT report is released with a three-day delay, so it does not take into account the drop in quotations of the last days. The category of traders “Non-commercial”, therefore, is increasing Long-contracts again, that is, it believes in a new growth of the European currency? All charts now point to a very likely resumption of the uptrend. Forecast for EUR / USD and recommendations for traders: On Wednesday, I recommend buying the euro with the targets of 1.2182 and 1.2214 on the hourly chart, as it closed on the downtrend line. It is not recommended to open sales of the pair yet, since all four charts predict the growth of the pair in the coming days. TERMS: “Non-commercial” – major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. “Commercial” – commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profits, but to support current activities or export-import operations. “Non-reportable positions” – small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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