Blacklist of scam sites

Forex Traiding

Experts predict a rise in oil prices to $ 60 per barrel



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-19 17:20:41 Last week, Brent crude was trading at a fairly high level – $ 57.4 per barrel. This figure was the highest since the end of January last year, when COVID-19 was deployed in China alone. The decision of Saudi Arabia to cut energy production by 1 million barrels per day helped to achieve this level of oil quotes. The readiness of the OPEC + countries to respond to every warning about a drop in demand was also important. The optimistic sentiment around the entire commodity sector determined a noticeable rise in quotations of oil products. But yesterday oil prices dropped to almost $ 55 per barrel and today they continue to strengthen at this level. An important role in determining the cost of raw materials is played by the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as market participants’ anxiety regarding vaccination of the population which is likely to take much longer than previously expected. This makes investors think about the speed of the global economic recovery. And while the service sector has plunged into a pandemic much more than the manufacturing sector, a recovery in all areas of business activity is essential for a full recovery in energy demand. And recently there was news of a new outbreak of COVID-19 in northeastern China. So, for the sixth day in a row, the number of new cases of infection in the PRC totals more than a hundred. It is highly likely that the Chinese government will impose severe restrictions ahead of the New Years, and data on US crude oil reserves from the API and EIA are also due this week. If the data show another increase in energy reserves, then the current level of oil demand will further decrease. In addition, the growth of cases of COVID-19 remains unchanged around the world, and at the same time the risk of introducing new measures to isolate the population in many countries. All this negatively affects the market and forces traders to abandon the further increase in long positions. The positive dynamics of the American currency relative to most assets, which we observe today, further pulls oil quotes down. According to the latest forecast of OPEC + experts, oil consumption in the coming year will rise from 90 to 95.9 million barrels per day. In other words, there is no need to wait for the pre-crisis demand for oil products. And most of the growth in consumption will come from developing countries, primarily China. By the way, China’s crude oil imports rose to 7.3% in 2020. Today, China has the second largest oil consumption in the world. Analysts at the American bank JP Morgan predict that in the near future, oil prices may well exceed $ 60 per barrel, as the market for the first time since 2017 tends to a deficit in annual terms. And if the OPEC + countries do not increase the production of black gold, then prices for it will jump to $ 80. According to experts from JP Morgan, due to the reduction in energy reserves, the discrepancy between supply and demand will increase in the II-III quarters of this year. Experts believe that oil consumption will reach pre-crisis levels only in the first half of 2022. Experts of the large Australian bank ANZ make a different forecast for the cost of oil: Brent will cost about $ 58 in the next quarter, and in the second half of this year, quotes will reach $ 60. At the same time, experts note that in the European region the demand for oil will significantly decrease. In the UK, vehicle traffic will decline by 42%. The decline in world stocks is expected to rise to 1.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter. However, it is possible that in the short term there will be a decrease in demand for this energy carrier. Apparently, the second quarter of 2021 may well demonstrate a noticeable increase in quotations of black gold. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

Related posts
Forex Traiding

2021-03-08 08:03:52: The largest and oldest bank in Colombia starts working with cryptocurrencies.

Forex Traiding

Buying and Selling in the Stock Market on March 8th

Forex Traiding

Review of the GBP / USD pair. March 8. A new conflict broke out between the European Union and Great Britain over Northern Ireland.

Forex Traiding

Forecast and trading signals for EUR / USD for March 8. Detailed analysis of yesterday's recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day.

Subscribe to our newsletter and
Stay up to date

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *