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Fears of geopolitical negativity are not pressing yet

The Russian currency strengthened slightly following Wednesday’s trading and opened with a bullish gap today. However, it was not possible to hold the position – despite the widespread decline in the dollar, the ruble is retreating in the middle of the day, partly under the influence of the pullback of oil prices from the intraday highs recorded during the morning session. so far they do not bear specifics, but nevertheless lend a taint of negativity in the context of potential new sanctions against Russia from the West in connection with the arrest of opposition leader Navalny. Probably, up to the emergence of possible details and specific statements in this regard, both the currency and the entire Russian market will react to the rhetoric with restraint. On the side of the ruble and risky assets in general – a decrease in political tensions in the United States after the inauguration of Biden, who immediately after the ceremony signed a number of documents repealing several decrees of their predecessor. This is undoubtedly a favorable signal for the markets, which have suffered from tough rhetoric and foreign policy of Trump. Against this background, the dollar devaluation trend risks continuing, which in turn will at least restrain pressure on the ruble, which is now receiving additional support from the traditional tax period. At the same time, a prerequisite is at least stability in the oil market and the absence of significant drawdowns. Otherwise, our currency will follow the oil signals regardless of the behavior of the “American” .___________________ Mikhail Dorofeev, Chairman of the Board, CPC Obnovlenie

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