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Forex Traiding

Forecast and trading signals for EUR / USD for July 15. Detailed analysis of yesterday’s recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day.


EUR / USD 5M. During the third trading day of the new week, the EUR / USD pair traded quite well, given the fact that the price was moving in one direction almost all day. However, there are several nuances here. Firstly, despite such a one-way traffic, quite a lot of signals were generated during the day, not all of which should have been worked out. Secondly, one should clearly understand why the pair went up today. Perhaps it was just a round of an upward movement, not based on anything. Perhaps this move was triggered by the day before yesterday’s US inflation report. As we have already said, growing inflation is a negative factor for the currency, but nevertheless, the day before yesterday, the US dollar showed growth. In general, one way or another, but the euro / dollar pair was in an upward movement yesterday. Let’s now see how you should trade. The first signal – to buy – was formed at the opening of the European session – overcoming the extremum level of 1.1784. Here it was possible to open long positions, but the upward movement did not continue immediately. The price returned three times to the 1.1784 level and bounced off it three times. Unfortunately, traders could interpret the last third rebound as a sell signal, since the price has gone far enough below this level. Thus, the buy trade closed at a loss of 12 points, sells were opened instead, and they also closed at a loss, since the price almost immediately returned above the level of 1.1784 (another 17 points loss). The start of the day turned out to be very bad. As a result, the last signal had to be interpreted as a false breakout of the level of 1.1784, so it was necessary to open purchases again. After that, a one-way movement was already observed, within which the price rose to the critical line and immediately overcame it. Thus, a buy deal brought traders at least 36 points of profit, and given the immediate breaking of the Kijun-sen line, the deal could have been held further and closed manually, which would have brought even more profit. Thus, Wednesday ended up with a small profit. Overview of the EUR / USD pair. July 15. Will Jerome Powell’s opinion on QE change? EUR / USD 1Н. On the hourly timeframe, the euro-dollar pair began to jump from side to side, while maintaining a downtrend, which is currently not supported by either the trend line or the channel. Thus, the situation is not very favorable. It can be seen with the naked eye that the price very often changes its direction of movement and is practically in the same price range. Over the past almost a month, the pair managed to decline by only 175 points, although formally the downward trend continues. From our point of view, traders are preparing for new powerful purchases of the euro. On Thursday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1772, 1.1807, 1.1881, 1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1863) and Kijun-sen (1.1830) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be “bounces” and “breaking” of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There are no major events or publications scheduled in the European Union on Thursday. Only in the evening will Jerome Powell make a speech in the US Congress. However, this will be the second time in Congress in two days, just before a different committee. Thus, the text of the Fed’s report is unlikely to change. And all the most interesting will be known in the next few hours. The United States will also publish a report on claims for unemployment benefits, but we believe that there will be no reaction to it. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP / USD pair. COT report. Recall that during the last reporting week (June 29 – July 5) the EUR / USD pair fell by 100 points. Thus, in the COT report one could expect to see a new weakening of the bullish sentiment of professional players. This is exactly what we saw in the latest report released on Friday. The number of purchase contracts for the reporting week increased by 4 thousand, and the number of sales contracts – by 16.5 thousand. Thus, the net position of the group of traders “Non-commercial” decreased by 12.5 thousand. Therefore, at the moment we can say that market participants continue to get rid of long positions and build up shorts. Therefore, it is possible to predict a further fall in the European currency. But not everything is so simple. We have already said that the movements of the pair over the past few months look just like a correction against the global uptrend. In addition, the US government and the Fed continue to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy, inflating the money supply and stimulating inflation. Thus, large players can get rid of euro positions, but at the same time the supply of the dollar in the markets will grow, which may lead to the opposite effect. A situation may arise in which the net position of professional players on the euro will decline, while the euro currency will grow. Actually, in October-November-December last year, this is exactly what happened. The green line of the first indicator (net position of the “Non-commercial” group) was declining, while the euro was growing. Thus, we recommend that traders pay more attention to technical analysis. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance / support) – levels that are targets when opening buy or sell. You can place Take Profit levels near them. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the 1-hour timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced off. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the “Non-commercial” group. – Source: InstaForex


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