Forecast and trading signals for EUR / USD for July 9. Detailed analysis of yesterday's recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day. - Get to know Forex

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Forecast and trading signals for EUR / USD for July 9. Detailed analysis of yesterday’s recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day.

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EUR / USD 5M. During the penultimate trading day of the week, the EUR / USD pair, unexpectedly for many, traded in a trend all day and practically did not even correct. This development of events came as a big surprise to us, since until yesterday, for several weeks, the most complex and ugly movements were observed, which were quite difficult to work out. Yesterday, when neither the European Union nor the United States published a single important macroeconomic report, the quotes of the European currency began to grow in the morning and remained in this direction for almost the whole day. Of course, the strengthening of the euro could be attributed to the unexpected press conference of the ECB, during which it became known that the regulator followed the example of the Fed and now admits that inflation will be above 2% for some time. Although, to be honest, we do not consider this too important news. Previously, the interpretation was “2% or slightly lower”, which could not be achieved for most of the last decade, now the interpretation was “2% or slightly higher”, and how the ECB is going to provide a stable 2% in the medium term is unknown. And in any case, this news came from the ECB clearly not at 8 am, so it can hardly be concluded that the euro was growing on this message. As for trading signals, three were formed yesterday. At the very beginning of the European session, the price broke the level of 1.1800, which served as a signal to open long positions. Subsequently, the pair rose to the level of 1.1837 and the Kijun-sen line and bounced off them, so the deal should have been closed near them in a profit of about 25-26 points. It was also necessary to open short positions on this signal, but the downward movement could not continue, so the sell trade was closed at a loss of 15 points when the price consolidated back above the critical line. And this overcoming served as a signal to open new long positions, which should have been closed manually in the late afternoon, since the price would still not reach the next target – the Senkou Span B line. Thus, another plus 10 points of profit, in total – 25. Overview of the EUR / USD pair. July 9. Absolutely tasteless Fed protocol. The money supply in the United States continues to grow. Review of the GBP / USD pair. July 9. The number of diseases in the UK continues to rise. Brexit continues to negatively affect the UK economy. EUR / USD 1Н. On the hourly timeframe, you can clearly see the continuing downtrend, and finally there is an opportunity to form a trend line. True, the price can overcome this line already today, so so far there is no special sense in it. It looks pretty pretty, clearly going through three price peaks. But if the upward movement continues, then it will be easily overcome. True, this will also have its own benefit, since the trend will change to an upward one. On Friday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The closest important levels at this time are 1.1800, 1.1837, 1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1890) and Kijun-sen (1.1836) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be “bounces” and “overcoming” of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Friday, not a single important publication is planned in the United States and the European Union. The only interesting event of the day will be Christine Lagarde’s speech, but it is far from the fact that this time she will tell the markets something important. On the other hand, today we can expect from her new information and comments on the updated monetary policy of the ECB (change in the inflation target). We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP / USD pair. COT report. Recall that during the last reporting week (June 22 – 28), the EUR / USD pair rose by 10 points. That is, the changes were minimal. Recall that serious changes (both in the COT report and in the price plan) were a week earlier, when the pair fell by 250 points, and large players closed a large number of buy contracts. According to the latest COT report, professional traders closed about 0.5 thousand buy contracts and opened 3.6 thousand sell contracts during the reporting week. This means that the net position for the “Non-commercial” group of traders dropped by 4 thousand at once, which is quite a bit. Thus, the bullish sentiment of the major players is still bullish, but continues to weaken. Basically, weakening bullish sentiment can be clearly seen in both indicators in the illustration above. On the first indicator, the green line (net position of the “Non-commercial” group) continues to approach the red line (net position of the “Commercial” group), which means the end of the current upward trend. It may be the global trend that will not end, but at this time, a new downtrend segment is clearly visible (recall that on the 24-hour timeframe this segment may be the second, corrective with a target of 1.1700). The second indicator shows a decrease in the size of the net position for non-commercial traders. The same thing: since this indicator is falling, this means that the chances for the growth of the euro currency are falling at this time. However, in general, we recall that the total number of Buy-positions for large players is now 210 thousand, and Sell-positions – 124 thousand. That is, the market sentiment is still bullish. Plus, do not forget about the factor injecting huge amounts into the American economy by the FRS and Congress, as well as high inflation in the United States. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance / support) – levels that are targets when opening buy or sell. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, transferred to the 1-hour timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced off. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the “Non-commercial” group. – Source: InstaForex

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