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Forecast and trading signals for GBP / USD for April 8. Detailed analysis of yesterday’s recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day.

GBP / USD 5M. The GBP / USD currency pair on Wednesday, April 7, as a whole, continued to fall, which began the day before. However, things are far from simple on the 5-minute timeframe. During the day, the pair has worked out important lines and levels almost 10 times, each time either forming a signal or indicating that the intraday trend is maintained. Let’s start everything in order. First, not a single important report was published during the day. Only in Great Britain became known the index of business activity in the service sector, which turned out to be worse than forecasted, and after its release the quotations of the British currency continued to rise within the day. Thus, he had no influence on the course of trading. Secondly, now the pound may be in the process of getting rid of speculators. We talked about this in more detail in the fundamental article. Therefore, a “storm” and not entirely logical movements may well accompany the pound in the coming weeks. During the Asian trading session, nothing interesting happened on the market, but with the opening of the European one, the Movements began! Immediately at the opening of Europe, the price bounces off the Kijun-sen line and forms the first sell signal. The target could not be the level 1.3812, as it was located too close to the Kijun-sen line. Therefore, the target is the Senkou Span B line, which the bears worked just perfectly. This trade brought in exactly 50 pips in profit. Further, a rebound followed from this line, which should have also been worked out with a buy order. This time the price also moved more than 50 points, but already up. Here traders could fix profits around the level of 1.3812, but it was easily overcome at the very first candlestick, therefore, it was also possible to close deals near Kijun-sen. Another + 40-50 points. This was followed by another sell signal in the form of a rebound from the Kijun-sen line, and again the level of 1.3812 could be ignored, because it was located too close to the entry point, plus the price had already crossed it several times earlier. The bears again take the pair to the Senkou Span B line and easily overcome this line, allowing traders to remain in sales with the targets of 1.3755 and 1.3737, which were also perfectly worked out! As a result, another 50 to 90 pips profit. The rebound from the 1.3737 level could not have been worked out, because this is the support level from the higher timeframe, and not the extremum level. However, even here, a buy trade would be profitable. Further, the price fixation above the Senkou Span B line is false and the fixation below the Senkou Span B line is not false. The first signal brought a loss of up to 20 points, the second profit, but a small one. Thus, on average, traders today could earn at least 120 – 140 points of profit. GBP / USD 1H. On the hourly timeframe, everything looks much more complicated and less beautiful. The bulls failed to seize the initiative and gain a foothold above the critical line, so the downward movement continued. At first, the pound / dollar pair bounced off the trend line, but the bulls again failed to overcome the Kijun-sen line, so the downward movement resumed and this time the trend line was broken. Therefore, the trend has changed to a downward one. Thus, further downward movement is more preferable. Tomorrow, in addition to Jerome Powell’s speech, the UK PMI for the construction sector will be published, but it is unlikely to cause a serious reaction. In general, we continue to recommend trading from important levels and lines, when rebounding from them and overcoming them. The most important levels and lines: 1.3812, 1.3755 and the Kijun-sen line (1.3832). Bounces or breaks of these price values ​​will be sources of signals. As before, it is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The nearest level / line is always used as targets (exceptions – if the target is too close to the signal). We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR / USD pair. COT report. Recall that during the last reporting week (March 16 – 22), the GBP / USD pair fell by only 37 points. However, this fall is as conditional as the growth a week earlier. 37 points is the distance that the pair travels in about one hour. Thus, it is impossible to say that the pair dropped significantly over the reporting week. But the COT report says about quite serious changes. During the reporting week, non-commercial traders closed 3.2 thousand Buy-contracts and opened 4.4 thousand Short. Thus, the net position for the pound immediately decreased by 7.6 thousand, which is quite a lot and reflects a strong weakening of the “bullish” mood among professional traders. Thus, despite the fact that it is the pound sterling that shows a not so strong fall (which is clearly seen in the illustration), it is its COT reports that more eloquently signal the end of the uptrend. However, an assumption should also be made here. Over the past 6-8 months, the green and red lines of the first indicator have often changed the direction of movement, so here it just cannot be said that the completion of the uptrend has been brewing for a long time. In general, the situation for the British currency remains more complex and confusing than for the euro. Considering the fact that much will depend on the American economy, both the euro and the pound can resume growth. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance / support) – levels that are targets when opening buy or sell. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – the lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the 1-hour timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced off. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the “Non-commercial” group. – Source: InstaForex

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