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Forecast and trading signals for GBP / USD for July 15. Detailed analysis of yesterday’s recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day.


GBP / USD 5M. The GBP / USD currency pair moved on July 14 also mainly in one direction – up. However, at the same time, a whole mass of signals was formed, a good half of which should be filtered out. However, more on that later. So far, it should be noted that the upward movement began in the very morning, when the inflation report was published in the UK, which, like in the US, accelerated even more and exceeded the forecasts of experts. However, in Britain, the consumer price index rose to only 2.5% y / y, and in the United States – to 5.4%. Nevertheless, in Britain such numbers have not been seen for a very long time. Thus, it seems that the British pound rose on the same market speculation about a faster withdrawal of the quantitative stimulus program as the US dollar a day earlier. One way or another, but the pound / dollar pair continues to trade in the “swing” mode, that is, constantly changing the direction of movement, which is especially clearly seen on the hourly timeframe. Now let’s analyze all the trading signals of the past day. In principle, signals began to form immediately in the European session. The first of them – overcoming the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines should have been filtered out, since it was formed exactly at the time when the British inflation report was published. However, do not be upset because of the missed signal, since after that the price bounced off Senkou Span B three more times. In parallel, having managed to rebound from the nearest target level of 1.3859. Thus, a long position should be opened at the second buy signal, close it near the level of 1.3859, immediately open sells, close them near Senkou Span B and immediately open new purchases. These three trades brought in a profit of about 26 pips. The last deal is especially important, since during its development the level of 1.3859 was overcome, but the price could not reach the next target level of 1.3898 and turned down. And by the middle of the American trading session, when we recommend closing all trades manually, the price went below the level of 1.3859, so a buy trade should have been closed manually anyway. Overview of the EUR / USD pair. July 15. Will Jerome Powell’s opinion on QE change? GBP / USD 1H. On the hourly timeframe, there is still no trend line or channel, and the movement of the pound sterling looks like a “swing”. There is no trend, so trading on the hourly timeframe is extremely difficult right now. Since the price broke a couple of days ago the previous local maximum (level 1.3898), there were certain hopes that the upward movement will continue. However, we see that the bulls have not yet managed to develop this movement. Overall, the pound / dollar pair remains the most confusing pair at this time. In technical terms, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3731, 1.3800, 1.3859 and 1.3898. Senkou Span B (1.3816) and Kijun-sen (1.3825) lines can also be signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. On Thursday in the UK will be published reports on unemployment, the number of applications for unemployment benefits, changes in average earnings. In the US – a report on claims for unemployment benefits and a speech by Jerome Powell. We believe that none of these events will be capable of causing a serious reaction from traders. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR / USD pair. COT report. Recall that during the last reporting week (June 29 – July 5), the GBP / USD pair fell by 35 points. However, Friday’s upward gains in British currency quotes were not included in the latest published COT report. Thus, we cannot yet know if the mood of the major players has become more “bullish” over the past few trading days. As a reminder, COT reports are released with a three-day delay. However, even according to the latest published COT report, we can conclude that the group of traders “Non-commercial” has become more “bullish” in their mood. During the reporting week, professional traders opened almost 5,000 buy contracts and almost 2,000 sell contracts. Thus, the net position of this group of traders increased by 3 thousand contracts. The total number of open purchase contracts also exceeds the number of sales contracts. Therefore, the British currency, according to COT reports, has an excellent chance of resuming the uptrend. Moreover, global technical and fundamental factors also speak in favor of this. The indicators are now showing complete uncertainty. On the one hand, the green and red lines (net positions of the “Non-commercial” and “Commercial” groups) are approaching each other, which indicates the end of the trend. On the other hand, when the pound sterling was actively growing, these lines did not move away from each other, which suggests the presence of external important factors that affect the supply and demand of the dollar and the pound. The second indicator shows that the net position of professional traders has been declining since March, but their mood is still bullish. Explanation of the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance / support) – levels that are targets when opening buy or sell. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – the lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced off. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the “Non-commercial” group. – Source: InstaForex


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