Forecast and trading signals for GBP / USD for July 9. Detailed analysis of yesterday's recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day. - Get to know Forex

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Forecast and trading signals for GBP / USD for July 9. Detailed analysis of yesterday’s recommendations and the movement of the pair during the day.


GBP / USD 5M. The GBP / USD currency pair was trading on July 8 in an absolute flat. Recently, the European currency could “boast” of movements with volatility of 40 points, but yesterday it was the euro that showed a fairly good movement in one direction throughout the day. But the pound sterling disappointed market participants, as it was in a range of about 55-60 points wide throughout the day. Moreover, during the day, not a single important report was published in either the UK or the US. In the States, a report on applications for unemployment benefits was released. The number of primary for the next week amounted to 373 thousand, while the forecast was 345 thousand. The number of secondary ones is now 3.339 million, which practically does not differ from the forecast. However, the markets still did not react to this data. The pound / dollar pair during the whole day has never even worked out a single important line or level. Thus, traders were deprived of even trading signals for this pair yesterday. On the other hand, trading in absolute flat is a thankless job. Therefore, it may be good that not a single signal was generated. Moreover, several important reports will be published in the UK today, therefore, perhaps, there will be more active trading today. Overview of the EUR / USD pair. July 9. Absolutely tasteless Fed protocol. The money supply in the United States continues to grow. Review of the GBP / USD pair. July 9. The number of diseases in the UK continues to rise. Brexit continues to negatively affect the UK economy. GBP / USD 1H. On the 1 hour timeframe, the pair is trying to form an uptrend after breaking the downtrend line, but instead are on the verge of continuing to move south. At this time, it is still unclear whether the downward movement will be resumed in the end or not. In recent articles, we have warned traders that movements can be completely illogical. Actually, we have been observing such movements for several days now. The picture is completely incomprehensible, and traders cannot really decide in which direction to trade. The pound has good chances of continuing to decline to the 1.3600 – 1.3666 area, but so far it cannot do it. In technical terms, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3677, 1.3731, 1.3800, 1.3859, 1.3898. Senkou Span B (1.3865) and Kijun-sen (1.3813) lines can also be signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. On Friday, the UK will publish quite important reports on GDP for May, as well as on industrial production. Unfortunately, the markets have not paid attention to industrial production for a long time, but maybe this time you will be lucky? By and large, and no one prevents traders from ignoring the GDP report, as was the case last week. There is still a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, but what he will tell the markets, of course, is still unknown. It is possible that nothing. There are no important events scheduled for tomorrow in the States. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR / USD pair. COT report. Recall that during the last reporting week (June 22 – 28), the GBP / USD pair fell by 50 points. However, there is still a feeling that the current decline in the pound sterling is a temporary phenomenon. The data from the COT reports at different times showed different pictures, but the pound still continues to grow in the long term. During the reporting week, a group of non-commercial traders closed 35 buy contracts and opened 454 sell contracts. Thus, the net position decreased by 420 contracts. But seriously, you shouldn’t even pay attention to these changes, since they are minimal. Nevertheless, the mood of professional traders is still bullish, as the total number of open buy contracts in the Non-commercial group remains 1.5 times greater than the number of sell contracts. Although professional traders for the pound did not buy the British currency at breakneck speed in the last year, nevertheless, the pound sterling has been growing all this time. The first indicator shows that the net position of non-commercial traders (green line) has been falling in recent weeks, but this fall pattern is fundamentally different from the similar line for the euro. If there was a clear trend for the euro and the actions of large players were indeed reflected in the COT charts, then in the case of the pound sterling, the data that reflect the actions of non-commercial traders is very confused and does not fit well with how the British currency has been moving in the last year. Actually, the indicators do not even show that the pound was actively bought, although the British currency has grown strongly over the past year and a half. Thus, once again it should be remembered that the pound sterling may rise simply because the money supply in the United States has inflated and continues to swell. Consequently, the dollar depreciates, and as a result, the pound sterling rate rises. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance / support) – levels that are targets when opening buy or sell. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – the lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the 1-hour timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced off. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the “Non-commercial” group. – Source: InstaForex


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