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Forecast and trading signals for the EUR / USD pair for February 24. COT Commitment of Traders report. Analysis of Tuesday’s deals. Recommendations



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-02-24 03: 04: 16EUR / USD 1H. On the hourly timeframe on February 23, the EUR / USD pair was trading quite calmly again. During the day, the quotes of the pair were mainly declining within a new round of the downward correction. We have formed an upward channel that supports bull traders and maintains the current uptrend. Thus, long positions are still more relevant. Bears in the last week remain rather weak and unable to start a new downtrend. And, to be honest, we do not see any special reasons for the dollar’s rise in price. Of course, this does not mean that the US currency cannot grow at all now. Not. However, if we take into account those global fundamental factors that brought the currency pair to current levels, the prospects for the dollar remain hazy in 2021. In our last review, we recommended selling the pair if the price consolidates below the critical line. No such signal has been generated over the past day. We recommended to buy the euro in case of clear overcoming of the extremum level of 1.2145 with the target of 1.2183. The price did not reach this level only a few pips in the end, so at least traders could close this trade at breakeven EUR / USD 15M. On the 15-minute timeframe, the lower linear regression channel turned down. Thus, in the most short term, the upward trend is questioned. The bulls failed to overcome the resistance level of 1.2183, therefore, now, as part of the correction, the pair may drop to the Kijun-Sen line. COT report. During the last reporting week (February 9-15), the EUR / USD pair rose by 70 points. Volatility during this period of time was practically minimal. In the illustration above, you can see that the pair, in principle, has not significantly decreased over the past weeks. We are constantly talking about corrective January, but if you look at the illustration, it becomes clear that this correction, compared to the entire 11-month uptrend, is simply nothing. Banal rollback. Thus, in general, it can already be concluded that market participants still do not favor the dollar and do not believe in it. Further, the COT report two weeks ago recorded a sharp drop in the number of Buy-contracts for a group of “Non-commercial” traders. Then the net position of non-commercial traders dropped by 33 thousand contracts at once. It seems to be a good start for a downtrend, but next week the COT report recorded an increase in the net position of major players, and the latest report released this Friday showed, albeit minimal, but changes in favor of the bulls. That is, professional traders have again taken up buying the euro. 2.5 thousand new purchase contracts were opened, as well as 1.3 thousand sales contracts. The changes, respectively, are minimal and do not greatly affect the overall picture of the state of affairs. Thus, the overall picture remains in favor of the bulls, as more than 220 thousand Buy contracts and only 84 thousand Sell contracts remain open. The indicators below the illustration clearly show that the trend is no longer becoming bearish. The green and red lines of the first indicator reflecting the net positions of the groups of traders “Non-commercial” and “Commercial” do not converge, therefore the current trend remains in effect. On Tuesday, February 23, the European Union published a report on inflation, which by the end of January -month has not changed and amounted to 0.9% y / y. Recall that a month ago deflation was recorded in the Eurozone, which is very bad for economic recovery. Yesterday’s inflation report was ignored by the markets if only because the forecasted, previous and actual values ​​coincided. The American consumer confidence indicator slightly exceeded the forecasted values ​​and amounted to 91.3, but it never caused a reaction from traders in normal times, and now, when 90% of macroeconomic statistics are ignored, even more so. Thus, we can say that the “foundation” and “macroeconomics” did not have any impact on the market today. There are no important speeches or reports scheduled in the European Union on Wednesday, and the US will host Jerome Powell’s second speech in Congress, this time at the Bank committee. Usually the second speech of the head of the Fed is no different from the first. Thus, if yesterday Powell did not report anything important and interesting, then today he is also unlikely to do so. We remind you that 80% of all speeches of the heads of the Central Bank do not contain any fundamentally new information. Well, Powell and Christine Lagarde cannot each week announce something new that the markets can theoretically react to. Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for February 24: 1) Buyers continue to keep the initiative in their hands. Thus, we recommend opening new long positions with targets at the levels 1.2183 and 1.2190 if traders manage to execute a clear rebound from the lower line of the ascending channel. Take Profit in this case can be up to 50 pips, which is not so bad considering the current volatility values. You can also consider longs with the target of 1.2145 with a new rebound from the Kijun-sen (but in this case in small lots). 2) The bears again let go of the initiative, as they let the price go above the critical line. Thus, it is recommended to open short positions if the price consolidates below the ascending channel with the targets at the level of 1.2111 and the Kijun-sen line (1.2101). Take Profit in this case can be up to 30 points. Burning forecast and trading signals for the GBP / USD pair. Explanations to the illustrations: Price levels of support and resistance (resistance / support) – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines, transferred to the 1-hour timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for the “Non-commercial” group. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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