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Gazprom and Neft have collapsed stock quotes

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Last Wednesday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (-1.14%) and RTS (-1.40%) finished the main trading with a fairly strong decline in relation to the levels of the previous close. At the end of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) index lost 1.23%. Thus, the ruble index of the Moscow Exchange markedly retreated downward from its recently updated all-time high. Nevertheless, there is still a positive medium-term technical picture in it. Yesterday’s negative dynamics of Russian stock indices was set already at the time of their weak opening. The main prerequisite for this was the annual dividend gap in the heavyweight Gazprom shares. In the afternoon, a rather sharp and large-scale drawdown in the value of oil futures had a depressing effect on the local stock market. The trigger for yesterday’s aggressive sales in black gold contracts was the publication of weekly data on changes in oil and petroleum product inventories from the US Department of Energy. Fresh statistics indicated a decrease in oil reserves overseas by almost 7.9 million barrels. The last time such a large-scale drop in this indicator was observed in early May. However, the “bullish” nature of these data was significantly mitigated by the total increase in gasoline and distillate stocks by 4.6 million barrels. Moreover, after their release, oil futures fell very quickly by about $ 2 per barrel. This is another example of the market’s paradoxical reaction to statistics, which does not happen so rarely. Another significant industry news for the oil market was the news that the UAE reached a compromise with OPEC + on revising the base level of oil production for the specified state. This means that the current international deal to limit production can be extended until the end of 2022. In the current realities, this is a completely logical and realistic scenario. On Thursday morning, September futures on the RTS Index (RIU1) are trading in a state of moderate backwardation of 7 p. Or about 0.4% against the benchmark indicator. Over the past day, the derivatives market participants have noticeably softened the negative assessment of the mid-term prospects of this index. Against the background of a fairly strong drop in the Moscow Exchange index following the main and evening trading sessions, the most liquid stocks closed mostly with a decrease within 1-3%. demonstrated shares of Gazprom (GAZP RM, -3.14%). Yesterday they had an annual dividend gap. It would seem that after this the paper of the gas monopoly should lose medium-term support. And yet they are able to close yesterday’s gap relatively quickly. These securities traded for a very long time far from their all-time high, which has not been updated since 2008. Meanwhile, the ruble index of the Moscow Exchange has doubled since that time. Therefore, these shares still retain the potential for further “catching up” growth in value from the current level. TCS-gdr (TCSG RM, -3.39%) has significantly fallen in price for the second day in a row. Their yesterday’s fall is still within the framework of a technical correction from the fresh July historical maximum. The medium-term uptrend in these securities is still unbroken. However, buying them at their current high level clearly carries an increased risk. Alrosa (ALRS RM, -1.73%) has suspended its solid five-day advance driven by the miner’s strong June sales results. These securities “got bogged down” in a large number of technical resistance on the approaches to their all-time high, updated in mid-June. Only a few representatives of the second echelon distinguished themselves with a noticeable gain against the falling market yesterday. Among them, it is worth highlighting the shares of two coal mining companies. These are Raspadskaya (RASP RM, + 4.71%) and Mechel-up (MTLRP RM, + 6.15%). Interest in them is fueled by a strong rise in coal prices in Europe, associated with interruptions in supplies from South Africa and with an increase in electricity consumption in the region. In a broader sense, we are seeing a general medium-term upward trend in energy prices. This morning, US stock index futures are showing a bi-directional deviation in value within 0.2%. Following the evening decline, Brent crude oil contracts fell 0.7%. Gold futures added 0.2%. The Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite gained 0.5%. Japanese Nikkei225 lost 1.2%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as ambiguous or mixed. Nevertheless, the morning drop in the price of oil futures creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a slight decline. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a decrease in the range of 0.1-0.3%, in the region of 3820-3830 p. The levels of 3810 will act as the nearest support for it. 3800 p. Significant resistance will be at 3850, 3860 p. In the first minutes of trading, the Moscow Exchange index will win back a moderate morning deterioration in mood on the oil market. Later, it is likely to stabilize around the opening level in anticipation of new signals for directional movement. In the afternoon, Russian traders will habitually focus on the dynamics of oil futures and the nature of the opening of the US stock market. Among a number of foreign statistics, the weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States (15.30 Moscow time) will have the maximum practical significance. Somewhat later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a statement regarding the prospects for the North American economy (16.30 Moscow time) ._________________ Vitaly Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Algo Capital Investment Company

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