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GBP / USD. June 11th. COT report. Andrew Bailey’s talk can bring the markets to life


GBP / USD – 1H. Good afternoon, dear traders! On the hourly chart, the GBP / USD pair on Thursday fell to the lower border of the side channel and even closed below it, however, after the inflation in the US in May became known, traders turned the pair in favor of the British and a new growth process began in the direction of the corrective the level of 200.0% – 1.4216, which continues at the moment. Yesterday was remarkable for traders only because of the US inflation report. It was this report that caused the fall of the American currency. During the day, traders did not receive any important information that could help them in trading. Today the situation will change for the better. Today the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, as well as his two “vice”, David Ramsden and John Cunliffe will speak. I believe that at least one of the representatives of the top management of the British regulator can tell traders something important. Let me remind you that traders have recently received information from the same board members of the Bank of England about a possible increase in the key rate in early 2022. Therefore, this information now requires confirmation. The more representatives of the Bank of England say about this, the higher the likelihood that the British regulator will be one of the first to raise rates after the crisis. Also released today is an important report on GDP for April in the UK. Traders expect the British economy to grow 2.4% m / m. Any reading above this could support the British, which is likely to target the 1.4216 level today. At the same time, I remind you that the pound-dollar pair remains in a very narrow sideways corridor, which means that movements can be in any direction. GBP / USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD pair bounced off the correction level of 0.0% – 1.4240, reversed in favor of the US currency and began to move towards the lower border of the uptrend corridor. Closing the pair rate below the channel will work in favor of a further drop in quotations with the targets of 1.4003 and 1.3870 and will change the mood of traders to bearish. GBP / USD – Daily. On the daily chart, everything still depends on the trend line along which the quotes continue to move. Closing the pair rate below this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling towards the correctional level of 100.0% – 1.3513. Until this happens, the growth process can be resumed at any time in the direction of the correction level 161.8% – 1.4812. GBP / USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the pound-dollar pair closed above the second downtrend line. Thus, the chances of a long-term growth of the pound sterling remain. News review: There was no major economic event in the UK on Thursday, and the US inflation report triggered a fairly strong rise in the British, but within a side corridor. News Calendar for USA and UK: UK – GDP Change (06-00 UTC) UK – Industrial Production Change (06-00 UTC) UK – Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (08-30 UTC) UK – Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Sir David Ramsden will deliver a speech (08-30 UTC) UK – Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability John Cunliffe will deliver a speech (08-30 UTC) Thursday in the US Economic Calendar empty. But in the UK there will be quite a lot of important events that should have an impact on traders. COT (Commitments of traders) report: The June 1 UK COT report showed that the mood of the major players has become sharply more bearish. During the week, the “Non-commercial” category of traders closed as many as 6544 Short contracts and opened only half a thousand Long contracts. However, these changes did not affect the British course. It is still in an uptrend. Other categories of traders were also not very active and, in total, an equal number of Long and Short contracts were opened during the reporting week. Thus, in general, the “bullish” mood remains, which is supported by the total number of open contracts for speculators: the number of Longs is twice the number of Short’s. Forecast for GBP / USD and recommendations for traders: Buy the British today is recommended if a new rebound from the lower border of the side channel with the target of 1.4216 is performed. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling if the rebound on the hourly chart from the level of 1.4216 with targets at 1.4136 and the lower border of the side channel is fulfilled. TERMS: “Non-commercial” – large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. “Commercial” – commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not to obtain speculative profit , but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. “Non-reportable positions” – small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. – Source: InstaForex

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