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GBP / USD. The pound dives down after the unsuccessful assault on the 39th figure


The pound has been depreciating against the dollar for the second day in a row. Despite the general weakness of the American currency, the gbp / usd pair has dropped 150 points since the beginning of the week. The southern impulse is almost recoilless, which indicates the dominance of bearish sentiment. It is noteworthy that the pair turned 180 degrees without any intelligible reason – if the previous growth of the British currency was due to very specific fundamental reasons, then the reverse move is more likely due to technical reasons and profit taking after the unsuccessful assault on the 39th figure. The US dollar index this week suspended its decline, but at the same time does not demonstrate any pronounced northern intentions. Therefore, the southern dynamics of gbp / usd is not related to the behavior of the American currency. While the pound is losing its positions throughout the market: look at the dynamics of such cross-pairs as gbp / jpy or eur / gbp – the Briton is clearly out of shape, demonstrating devaluation. But back to the pound-dollar pair. On Monday, buyers of the pair tested the 39th figure, reaching 1.3913. In just one day, the price jumped by exactly 100 points (the low was marked accordingly at around 1.3813). But traders could not hold their positions and could not gain a foothold at the 39th price level – on the same day the pair rolled down, having updated the price low of the week (1.3727) today. Such price fluctuations occur against the backdrop of an almost empty economic calendar. During the European session, only the PMI for the services sector was released. But we are talking about the final assessment of the March indicator, which was slightly revised downward (56.3 instead of the initial estimate of 56.8). Such a minor release could not provoke a southern impulse, especially since the pound has been declining since yesterday. In my opinion, you shouldn’t trust the bearish sentiments for the pair. Unlike the euro, the pound can oppose itself to the dollar, given the fundamental picture for the British. The UK is gradually easing quarantine restrictions, according to a previously published “road map”. So, at the end of March, the British were allowed to meet outdoors in groups of 6 people “or from two households” – including in private estates. In addition, the authorities “legalized” organized outdoor sports. From April 12, the next stage will follow: in particular, all stores will open in England (since the end of winter, only those that sold essential goods have been open), gyms, spas, zoos and theme parks will be reopened. In other words, Britain is moving in line with the previously outlined plan. According to this plan, the country will completely lift quarantine restrictions in August. In terms of the vaccination campaign, the country of Foggy Albion also takes a leading position. According to the latest data, 32 million people have already received one dose of the vaccine, while more than 5 million (that is, about 10% of the country’s adult population) have received the “complete set”, that is, both doses. Long periods of strict quarantine restrictions, coupled with accelerated vaccination rates, have borne fruit. If in January the increase in the number of infected people was 50-60 thousand per day, now this figure is hovering around 3 thousand. Of course, the final “victory” is still far away, but the trends are visible with the naked eye. The weak point of the British currency is the macroeconomic reports. According to the latest data, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 86 thousand (while the forecast is only 9 thousand). Inflation is showing weak growth – on a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose to just 0.1%. In annual terms, the indicator also slowed down – for the first time after two months of growth. The main consumer price index was also disappointing. This indicator came out at the lowest level since August last year, reaching 0.9%. Of course, such weak macroeconomic reports do not contribute to the growth of the national currency. But here it should be noted that British statistics are coming out with a big delay: for example, now we are operating with data for February. Since then, there have been a lot of events (primarily related to the fight against the pandemic) that contribute to the recovery of the British economy. Actually, for this reason, the pound shot to the borders of the 39th figure, despite the disappointing releases. And in my opinion, the Briton has not exhausted his growth potential. The pound withstood the blow from negative macroeconomic reports and “dovish” comments from the Bank of England representatives, but at the same time turned 180 degrees to the south without any intelligible reason. It can be assumed that the further implementation of the roadmap to weaken quarantine restrictions, as well as an increase in the rate of vaccination (today vaccination with the American company Moderna begins) will again strengthen the position of the British currency. The closest support level for gbp / usd is located at 1.3700, which is the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart. The next support level is the lower Bollinger Bands line, which coincides with the 1.3660 target. If the southern impulse begins to fade at the base of the 37th figure, then in this price area it will be possible to consider longs with the first target at 1.3840 (the middle Bollinger Bands line on D1, coinciding with the Kijun-sen line). – Source: InstaForex

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