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GBPUSD. Historical trade transaction and its implications for the market and the economy



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2020-12-25 17:55:41: UK seals historic European Union trade deal, avoiding hard Brexit, and paved the way for a new relationship with its largest trading partner. Negotiators complete a 500-page deal to completely secede Britain from the Euroblock on Christmas Eve, just a week before the country leaves the EU’s single market and the Customs Union, ending more than four years of harrowing process triggered by a referendum that changed British politics and the country’s ties to the rest of Europe. But there are still risks to British business as new rules take effect in the coming days and the government has a long battle to prove the painful division was worth it. The trade deal resolved an issue that has plagued our policies for decades, the prime minister said. Minister Boris Johnson at a press conference on Thursday “It has been a long and winding road, but we have a deal, it is fair, balanced and it is the right and responsible thing to do for both parties,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. will be put to a vote in the UK Parliament on December 30, and with the opposition Labor Party promising to back it, Johnson’s agreement will almost certainly become law. European envoys will gather over Christmas to scrutinize the agreement and are expected to give it preliminary approval before it will be submitted to the European th parliament. The historic trade deal radically changes the structure of business on both sides of the canal and frees the British parliament from many of the restrictions imposed by EU membership. After December 31, tariff and quota-free trade in goods will be allowed, but this will not affect the service sector (about 80% of the UK economy) or the financial services sector. The trade deal is great news, the UK has prevented the damage from completely severing official trade ties with the European Union. but it will still face the biggest reboot of developed economy trade since World War II. What will change after December 31: • Customs regime Companies exporting to the EU will have to file customs declarations. • City of London Financial institutions will lose their rights to provide services for the whole EU, which will force them to change staff and strengthen their activities in the Euroblock. • Services Services, which make up 80% of the UK economy and include sectors such as audit, architecture and consulting, will face new restrictions. Businesses may need to set up an EU office to continue trading and may also need local approval for their professional qualifications • Rules of origin To take advantage of zero tariff trading under the UK-EU agreement, companies will need to submit proof of origin of their goods. Only products that contain sufficient UK or EU inputs will be subject to a zero tariff regime • Standards Businesses must comply with two separate regimes for the standards and rules for marketing their products. In simple terms, approval from UK and EU authorities will be required to be eligible to sell in both markets • Tourism A visa will be required to stay in the EU for more than 90 days • Immigration Free movement between the UK and the EU will end. The UK plans to use a pinpoint immigration system where foreign workers must prove that they meet certain criteria before they are allowed to come to the UK to work. Criteria include proficiency in English, an existing job offer and earnings in excess of £ 20,480 per year. What happened on the trading chart? The pound sterling, on expectations of a positive outcome on the long-term Brexit, broke up, reaching the local high of the medium-term uptrend. Buyers did not manage to break through the 1.3600 / 1.3625 area, perhaps, there was not enough trading volumes due to the early closure of trading floors, and perhaps the news has already been won back by the market. It should not be forgotten that the pound sterling has recently grown to the levels of 2018, which is considered a very high flight for all the economic problems of the United Kingdom. What was happening in terms of market dynamics? The pound sterling showed upward activity against the dollar, where the overall volatility trading day (December 24) amounted to 129 points, which is quite a lot, but also not a lot for such a grand event as a Brexit deal. What has changed in terms of market trends? Nothing, the pound sterling quote did not even update the local maximum of the medium-term uptrend. More than 800 points remain before the global change in the long-term trend, so it is too early to worry that the global downtrend will change. What’s on the market today? Celebrating Christmas! That’s right, the markets are closed today and will open on Monday. The new trading week kicks off on the weekend in the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, celebrating Boxing Day. In connection with this holiday, trading volumes may be reduced, but due to the fact that the speculative expectations of a positive Brexit have come to an end, it may be understood that everything is not so perfect as it was hoped in 2016 at the referendum, and the pound sterling is smooth As you can see from the details of the past day (December 24), during the press conference, the British currency has already entered the correction mode, which may continue in the period of December 28-31. The outlook for the weakening of the pound sterling is seen in the direction of 1.3450; 1.3350. Is it worth considering an upward development? At the moment there are no clear signals, here it is worth following the information flow and rhetoric of England and Brussels, rethinking may occur if the quotation is kept above the local maximum of 1.3650 in a four-hour period. Key levels of the Resistance Zone: 1.3650 **; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **. Support Zones: 1.3300 **; 1.3000 ***; 1.2840 / 1.2860 / 1.2885; 1.2770 **; 1.2620; 1.2500; 1.2350 **; 1.2250; 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957). * Periodic level ** Range level *** Psychological level I advise you to read the articles: GBPUSD – Speculators are already actively working out the news on a trade transaction, which is what they advise you Forex market trading recommendations for novice traders – EURUSD and GBPUSD 12/24/2020 Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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