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Geopolitics remains the main pressure factor

The ruble fell in price on Monday amid the aggravation of the geopolitical backdrop, where the detention and subsequent arrest of Navalny led to a prompt negative reaction from Western countries, which started talking about sanctions. Unlike the stock market, which ignored this factor, the currency could not remain indifferent and declined, especially since the dollar started the week with an increase. However, today our currency looks stable, partly due to the cooling of the ardor of dollar buyers and the resumption of the rise in oil prices , although in general the movements in the markets are constrained. The dollar / ruble pair, which at the moment reached the level of 73.40 rubles, bounced off local lows and during the recent trading reached the area of ​​73.70 rubles, still holding slightly below yesterday’s closing level. provide a range of factors, from dollar dynamics to geopolitics. The aggravation of the situation with opposition leader Navalny in the context of further Western reaction may increase pressure on the “Russian” and deprive him of support from the traditional tax period that began last week. Traders also do not seem to have high hopes for the oil market, where prices are refraining from deeper drawdown, but also cannot show a distinct growth. The current trend resembles a sideways channel entrance, although in the short term volatility in the commodity segment may increase after the release of today’s monthly IEA report .______________ Mikhail Kogan, Head of Analytical Research, Higher School of Financial Management

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