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Global stock markets: Investors worried about vaccine shortage

The ups and downs of the transfer of power in Washington and the issues of stimulating the US economy fade into the background under the pressure of negative news about the shortage of vaccines against coronavirus, and their side effects, as well as the spread of new strains. Since Pfizer announced the vaccine, risky assets have been growing on “optimism vaccines” in anticipation that the pandemic will be dealt with by next spring / summer. Now it is obvious that the optimism was not justified, and against the dollar, meanwhile, a record short position was accumulated over the past decade. Now it has begun to decline, fuel was added to the fire by the remarks of the head of the ECB that the regulator is closely monitoring the euro. Over the past week, EUR / USD lost about 2%, the fall has every chance to continue to the targets we indicated a week ago: 1.19 for EUR / USD, 92 Dollar Index. The yen is holding stronger than expected, it is supported by the started risk-off in the stock markets. USD / JPY has not yet been able to overcome upward 104. We believe, however, that the reduction of shorts in the dollar across the entire spectrum of markets will nevertheless force the yen to weaken more. Oil continued the downward trend that began last week, pulling commodity currencies with it. Oil, as the practice of last year showed, is the most sensitive asset to the topic of lockdowns, therefore, commodity currencies are already at the forefront of the decline against the dollar, we believe this trend will continue. Returning to the topic of the domestic political situation in the United States, before the change of power, the District of Columbia actually switched to martial law. The outgoing Administration, meanwhile, is hastily making political decisions against Cuba, Iran, China, possibly trying to complicate Biden’s foreign policy change. These sporadic actions do not add enthusiasm to the markets, however, they do not add any risks. Summing up, we expect the dollar to continue strengthening in the beginning of the week. The ruble, within the framework of the general tendency for commodity currencies to weaken, is weakening since the beginning of the week, remaining, however, in the medium-term side formation in the range of 73 … 75. A week ago, we announced a forecast of USD / RUB growth towards the upper border of this range, and we continue to adhere to it. Stock markets. American stock indices are moderately correcting from previously reached highs, the negative trend is likely to continue until the new Administration pushes through both House of Congress has plans to stimulate demand and build infrastructure. We note the risks of S & P-500 correction to 3600, and NASDAQ to 12000. RTS within the framework of these trends may return to 1400 if it overcomes the important support at 1450. At the beginning of the week it is trading not far from it .________________________ Dmitry Golubovsky, Analyst, FG Kalita -Finance ”

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