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Investors underestimate the risks associated with production



After a short pause, oil prices returned to growth, exceeding $ 66 per barrel in trading on Wednesday. Futures are trading flat today during the morning session after renewing 13-month highs in the $ 66.60 area. It looks like market participants have decided to focus on the positive, ignoring the bearish factors present in the commodity segment today. Locally, these are industry statistics that have confirmed inventory growth, exceeding the API estimate. So, according to the US Department of Energy, last week crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels against the forecast of falling by more than 5 million barrels due to recent disruptions in Texas. By the way, the market reacted very modestly to the recovery of production in the state affected by the anomalous frosts. Meanwhile, the OPEC + meeting is approaching, which will be held in a week. There are contradictions between the members of the alliance in the person of Russia and Saudi Arabia. It is not excluded that the Saudis will abandon voluntary production cuts from April, which is not taken into account in current prices, which means that in a negative scenario Brent could suffer impressive losses in the coming week. purchases to reduce risks. In the short term, attempts to break through to the $ 67 mark could lead to profit-taking, which can be limited by a weak dollar and a returning demand for risk ._______________________ Arseniy Dadashev, Director, Academy of Financial and Investment Management

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