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Last minute forecast for GBP / USD from 01/14/2021



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-14 09:45:50 Despite the fact that yesterday was quite busy, the pound practically stood still. Some activity was observed only after the opening of the American session, and even then it was rather symbolic. At the same time, oddly enough, the pound for the most part reacted more to the inflation data than to the decision of Congress to impeach Donald Trump. Democrats, who have a majority in Congress, once again voted for the resignation of the still incumbent President of the United States, but this is probably the end of the issue. The fact is that the Republicans have a majority in the Senate, and without their approval, this decision is basically impossible. The leader of the Republicans in the Senate immediately announced that for the remaining few days, the senators, with all their desire, would not have time to physically consider this issue. Moreover, the case has not yet been transferred from Congress to the Senate, without which the senators cannot begin to consider it. Well, the funny thing is that the leader of the Democrats in Congress did not give an answer to the question when exactly the case will be referred to the Senate. So already the fourth impeachment of Donald Trump, in fact, is turning into another information hype, which the Democrats are satisfied with without any practical result. While the Democrats’ persistence does make you nervous, the pound did respond more quickly to inflation data. Albeit with a slight delay. Moreover, the data itself turned out to be incredibly good. According to the most daring forecasts, inflation should have increased from 1.2% to 1.3%. In fact, it accelerated to 1.4%. The only thing that raises a question is that the pound could weaken somewhat more against this background. Apparently, this is due precisely to political factors that create constant pressure on the dollar. Inflation (United States): Since the market practically ignores macroeconomic statistics, including even inflation, it is unlikely that today we will see any serious reaction to data on claims for unemployment benefits in the United States. Although the forecasts for them are quite positive. Of course, the number of initial applications may grow from 787 thousand to 790 thousand. But the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced from 5 072 thousand to 4 850 thousand. That is, the total number of applications may decrease by 219 thousand. due to repeated calls. So unemployment, albeit slowly, continues to decline, which is good news. However, the market reaction will be extremely restrained, and the weakening of the pound will clearly be extremely limited. Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (United States): The GBPUSD currency pair during the recovery process relative to the corrective move 1.3702 -> 1.3450 found resistance point in the face of the area of ​​the local maximum of the medium-term uptrend of 1.3690 / 1.3705, where there was a deceleration followed by a pullback of 1.3698 -> 1.3611. The speculative mood, which took place at the beginning of the trading week, reduced appetite, which affected volatility. The market dynamics of the past day is only 87 points, which is considered a low value for such a dynamic currency pair. If we proceed from the current position of the quotes, then we can see a sideways movement within the boundaries of 1.3611 / 1.3654, which has been in the market for more than 10 hours. Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it can be seen that the quote is still at the conditional peak of the medium-term ascending It can be assumed that the 1.3611 / 1.3654 range serves as a cumulative process in the market, which may lead to an acceleration of dynamics in the event of a breakdown. The most optimal trading tactic is considered to be the method of breaking through one or another border. Trading recommendations: It is recommended to buy a currency pair at a price higher than 1.3660, with the prospect of a move to 1.3700. It is recommended to sell a currency pair at a price below 1.3600, with the prospect of a move to 1.3550-1.3500.From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, you can see that technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a purchase due to price fluctuations at the conditional peak of the trend. Minute intervals signal a sell due to the rollback stage Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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