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Oil provides strong support to the ruble



On Thursday, February 4, trading in ruble pairs ended in decline. The ruble rushed up from the opening of trading amid rising oil prices. He received additional support against the euro from the weakening of the single currency in the Forex market after the meeting of the Bank of England. The dollar / ruble pair fell by 0.56%, to 75.50 rubles, euro / ruble – by 0.1.12%, to 90.33 rubles, pound / ruble – by 0.32%, to 103, RUB 23 By the end of the day, the price of Brent crude rose 0.63% to $ 59 per barrel. The oil market is receiving support from shrinking US oil reserves, optimism about a new US pandemic bill, and OPEC + policies to curb oil production. The British pound rose sharply on Thursday after the meeting of the Bank of England. Market participants lowered expectations of negative rates in the UK, which helped to strengthen the currency. The dollar rose on the back of rising Treasury yields, stabilization of the US labor market and confidence in the US economic outlook. The US government said the number of Americans filing new jobless claims has decreased last week. Last week, initial claims for unemployment benefits amounted to 779 thousand against the forecast of 812 thousand in the previous week. Friday’s employment report may be stronger than expected. Market participants from Alexei Navalny again switched to the oil market and the pandemic. On Friday, February 5, Brent crude is trading in positive territory at trading in Asia. Opening on the ruble is expected to grow. On the way for sellers of the dollar at the level of 75.30 rubles. there is resistance. If they pass it today, they will give the ruble another chance to win back losses up to 74.50 rubles. for the dollar. It will be difficult to do this today, as traders now do not risk remaining in the ruble over the weekend. The key event of the day for all markets is the US employment report for January. Whichever way it comes out, the ruble before the weekend can lose profit and close in the red. Stock Market On Thursday, Russian stock indices closed higher on the back of rising oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble. The indices showed growth from the opening of the trading session and then from 12:00 Moscow time until the close of the evening session they were trading in a sideways trend. As a result of trading, the Moscow Exchange index amounted to 3372 points (+ 0.85%), the RTS index – 1402.71 points (+1.13%). In Asia, a barrel of Brent costs $ 59.13 (+ 0.23%). Futures on the S & P500 have renewed their maximum and are going to move higher to 3897. External factors are favorable for the Russian market, so they are expected to rise from the opening. The technical picture is 50-50. If the bullish momentum fades in the first half of the day, we should expect a “strait” before the weekend. ______________ Vladislav Antonov, Analyst, IAC “Alpari”

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