Oil spoiled the mood of investors and collapsed quotes - Get to know Forex

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Oil spoiled the mood of investors and collapsed quotes


This week we have seen a weakening of the ruble amid a slight decline in oil prices. So, earlier the price for a barrel of Brent fuel rose above $ 78, but now it is traded at $ 74 per barrel. The market continues to be influenced by the situation around the coronavirus pandemic and the mutual certification of vaccines from different countries. Russia was also forced to respond to the tense situation near the border with Turkmenistan – another outbreak of conflict in Afghanistan is affecting, which, in turn, does not add optimism to the market. promptly respond to changes by raising rates. Already, such a major player in the market as Sberbank is inclined to believe that the key rate may grow by 1%, which is higher than previously forecasted. So far, we cannot say with complete certainty that the rate hike cycle will continue, but the market is oriented in this direction. Thus, the yield of “short” OFZs rose to 6.15 pp. – 2 weeks ago it was at 6%. The yield on medium-term OFCs is approaching 7% and now stands at 6.9 pp. annual. Long bonds also rose to 7.25 pp. Thus, we see that the market has adjusted the previous expectation of the key rate increase by 0.5 p.p. to a higher 1% Inflation adjusted at 6.5%. In theory, the ruble should strengthen in anticipation of an increase in the key rate, but not this time: foreign economies, according to market estimates, are doing better. The forecast for the next week will be as follows: 74-75 rubles / dollar, euro in the corridor 88-89 rubles / euro ._____________ Vladimir Zotov, Chief Operating Officer of the Treasury, Ural Bank for Reconstruction and Development (UBRD)


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