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Oil will smoothly reach $ 85 per barrel by the end of the year


The dollar exchange rate established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation since July 15 has been raised to 74.12 rubles. (+6 kopecks), the euro rate has been reduced to 87.39 rubles. (-39 kopecks). During the trades on July 14 at 18.10 Moscow time, the dollar against the ruble fell to 74.13 rubles (-1 kopeck), the rate of the euro against the ruble retreated to 87.44 rubles. (-39 kopecks). Dual currency basket value dropped to 80.09 rubles. (-14 kopecks) As Interfax reported, “Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reached a compromise on the oil deal.” … “The compromise means that the OPEC + deal will be extended until the end of 2022. “Reaching an agreement in OPEC + removed the uncertainty and risks from the oil market associated with the possibility of a repeat of the 2020 scenario, when Saudi Arabia collapsed in oil prices. Our baseline scenario, while maintaining the OPEC + deal until 2022, assumes a gradual slow increase in the oil price associated with the artificial containment of the oil supply by the cartel members, which is growing more slowly than the needs of buyers. Demand is being met by OPEC + volumes, gradually dwindling global oil reserves and volumes from non-cartel suppliers. It can be expected that oil will smoothly reach $ 80-85 per barrel by the end of the year. This scenario assumes an increase in oil and gas foreign exchange revenues of the Russian budget, which should create pressure on the dollar against the ruble, and by the end of the year the dollar can confidently go to the region of 70 rubles per dollar. The cost of Brent crude oil futures at the auction on July 14 by the evening exceeded 76. 12 USD per barrel (+ 0.22% to the close of yesterday). The price of futures for WTI crude oil rose to 74.78 USD per barrel (+ 0.62% to the close of yesterday) .______________ Artem Tuzov, Executive Director, Capital Market Department, Investment Company Univer Capital


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