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Overview of the EUR / USD pair. January 14. The Republican leader in the Senate will decide the fate of Donald Trump. Mike Pence refused



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-14 03:05: 264-hour timeframe Technical data: Major linear regression channel: direction – upward; Younger linear regression channel: direction – upward Moving average (20; smoothed) – downward СCI: -72.1128 The EUR / USD currency pair on Wednesday, January 13, corrected to the moving average line, bounced off it and resumed its downward movement. Long-awaited downward movement. Thus, for at least another couple of days, the US dollar may feel good after two months of continuous decline. We still cannot conclude that the fundamental background influences the market sentiment. If you look at the situation as a whole, then the last round of the fall of the American currency began the day after the presidential elections in the United States. That is, we can assume and admit that it was Joe Biden’s victory in the elections that provoked the fall of the American currency. At first glance, it’s even logical, because under Democratic presidents, the dollar tends to fall. However, Biden is not yet president. Moreover, if the US currency declined due to the fact that Biden won the election, then what happens when Biden becomes president? In general, to be honest, the “speculative” factor looks more convincing as an explanation for the fall in the US dollar in recent months. The fall of the last couple of days is explained by a banal technical correction. The pair has been growing for a long time, so sooner or later a correction had to begin. We continue to recommend paying increased attention to technical analysis, since the fundamental background is now absolutely ambiguous, and many global macroeconomic factors are completely ignored. We have already written about them many times. The most important is the state of the EU and US economies in the fourth quarter of 2020 – the first quarter of 2021. Well, all the attention of traders is now riveted on the US Congress, which is preparing to vote to impeach Donald Trump. Most likely, the House of Representatives of Congress will approve the impeachment. Simply because the majority in it are Democrats. But then everything will be decided by the US Senate. Recall that to remove Trump from power, 67 senators need to vote in favor. Democrats have 50 votes at best. This means that 17 Republicans must vote “for” Trump’s removal. Why do they need it? After all, Trump, even when he leaves his presidency, will remain in the Republican Party. Why would anyone quarrel with him? Moreover, Trump will leave the presidency in a week anyway! Here we are talking either about the complete exclusion of Trump from the party, or about the rejection of impeachment. That is, either pan or disappeared. Some American media, however, report that several Republican Senatorial leaders Mitch McConnell, who had several conflicts with Donald Trump, but always supported him as president, is rumored to be ready to approve impeachment. If this is really true, then McConnell, as an important figure in the ranks of the Republicans, can listen to other party members. In this case, the question will already be about the complete exclusion of Trump. In the lower house of Congress, several Republicans are also ready to vote against Trump, but additional votes are not needed there. The forces of the democrats will be enough with the head. Thus, the question of Trump’s future is now: Will there be a conspiracy against Trump in the ranks of the Republican Party? Given the fact that Trump is set to run for president in 2024, it can be assumed that many Republicans would like to see their party’s nominee not Trump. Simply because Trump’s chances of winning in 2024 will be extremely slim. Biden must fail even more miserably than Trump himself in order for Americans to return to the notorious Donald four years later. And this is hard to believe. Thus, if the conspiracy does take place, then with the aim of not removing Trump from the presidency, but with the goal of removing him from big politics once and for all. Vice President Mike Pence has approximately the same position. Recall that the Democrats published a resolution a day earlier that requires the removal of Trump. Democrats gave Pence 24 hours to decide whether to remove the president from office under the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution. However, Pence did what many expected of him. He did not quarrel with Trump a week before the end of his presidential term. For what? To live in the White House for one week? Pence wrote an open letter to Congress, in which he urged not to make decisions that could further divide the country, and also said that he did not consider Trump’s removal as a decision that is in the interests of the country and the Constitution. Trump himself went his favorite path, which for four years of his reign has already become commonplace and tired of everyone. Trump again began to warn, threaten, warn and do all this unfounded. The President warned the Democrats against such actions (impeachment). “Be careful what you wish for,” Trump said in Texas. As always, Trump did not say what would happen if Democrats continued their attempts to remove him from office. However, Democrats are not too afraid of Trump. Thus, in the coming week, we will continue to monitor political news from across the ocean, as it is simply impossible to miss them. It still cannot be concluded that all this news has an impact on the US currency or on the euro / dollar pair. We give preference to a technical correction based on profit taking by buyers on long positions. Therefore, we support further downward movement of the euro / dollar pair. In the longer term, the US dollar, from our point of view, will also rise in price, but this hypothesis is too contrary to the current state of affairs, when the demand for the dollar is still too low. The COT reports, by the way, also do not allow us to conclude that major players have finally given up buying the European currency. Thus, there is no evidence that the uptrend is over. In addition to overcoming movings by the price. The volatility of the EUR / USD currency pair as of January 14 is 85 points and is characterized as “average”. Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.2239 and 1.2069 today. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upwards may signal the resumption of the upward movement. The closest support levels: S1 – 1.2085S2 – 1.1963S3 – 1.1841 The closest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2207R2 – 1.2329R3 – 1.2451 Trading recommendations: EUR pair / USD has resumed its downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay short with the target of 1.2085 until the Heiken Ashi indicator reverses upward. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair consolidates back above the moving average, with a target of 1.2329. Recommended reading: GBP / USD pair overview. January 14. Boris Johnson “became” a medic. The relationship between China and the UK is heating up. Trading signals, COT report: Forecast and trading signals for the EUR / USD pair for January 14. Forecast and trading signals for the GBP / USD pair for January 14. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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