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Forex Traiding

plan for the American session on February 22 (analysis of morning deals). The bears are not up to the task.



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-02-22 15: 20: 48To open long positions on EURUSD it is required: In the morning I paid attention to the support level 1.2109 and recommended to act from it. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and talk about what happened. Even during the first test of this level, no specificity was achieved. A repeated return and breakdown of this range did not generate a signal to sell the euro, as after the reverse test from the bottom up, the bulls easily pierced this area, and the data from the IFO institute returned new buyers to the market. 1.2143. In the afternoon, the nearest levels had to be revised. Only a breakout and consolidation above 1.2143, with a test of this level from top to bottom, will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the expectation of continued growth of the euro to a maximum of 1.2167, where I recommend taking profit. Considering that important fundamental statistics do not come out in the afternoon, volatility will be quite low. However, one should not forget about the speech of the President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde, which can shake up the markets properly. If we see a decline in EUR / USD in the afternoon, it would be best to postpone long positions for a rebound from support 1.2093, from where an upward correction of 15-20 points can be expected within the day. The next and larger support level is seen in the area of ​​1.2037. To open short positions on EURUSD, the following is required: Bears will rely on Lagarde’s performance and the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of ​​1.2143, where the pair is currently trading. However, going against the trend can only be done if the President of the European Central Bank touches on the program of buying bonds or the exchange rate of the euro. Only this scenario will lead to a downward correction in EUR / USD to the support area of ​​1.2093, where I recommend taking profit. The further target will be the minimum of 1.2037, but we are unlikely to go to it today. If sellers do not show any activity in the area of ​​1.2143, it is best to wait for the last week’s maximum and sell the euro from there immediately on a rebound with the aim of a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day. The next major resistance level can be seen in the area of ​​1.2194. I recommend that you check out my video forecast for today. Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 9 recorded an increase in short and long positions, which reflects the current situation. The equality of buyers and sellers clearly characterizes the entire last week, when the pair spent in a sideways channel. It is important to note that any adequate decline in the EUR / USD pair has always been accompanied by quick purchases, and the fact that the US dollar continues to be less and less in demand among investors has already been said many times. Therefore, I think a more correct approach to the market is buying the European currency. The only problem for the euro remains the lack of guidance from the European Central Bank and the risk of verbal intervention, which limits the upward potential. However, with each significant downward correction in the pair, the demand for the euro will only increase. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 216,887 to 220,943, while short non-commercial positions rose from 79,884 to 80,721. As a result, the total non-commercial net position rose after last week’s decline to level 140 222 from level 137 003. Weekly closing price was 1.2052 versus 1.2067 a week earlier. Indicator signals: Moving averages Traded above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating continued growth in the euro in the short term. Note: Period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2143 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the lower border in the area of ​​1.2105. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence – moving average convergence / divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands. Period 20: Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, head funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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