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plan for the American session on January 21 (analysis of morning deals). Euro Buyers Targeting 1.2174 But It All Depends



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-21 16: 31: 43To open long positions on EURUSD it is required: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level 1.2130 and recommended to act based on it. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and break down the entry points. It is clearly seen that after finding the euro below the level of 1.2130, the bears did not show much enthusiasm, after which a return to this range followed and its retest from top to bottom. This scenario allowed buyers to enter the market with the main goal of further recovery of the pair. From a technical point of view, compared to the morning forecast, nothing has changed much. If Christine Lagarde gives a positive assessment of the outlook for the European economy in the afternoon, this could lead to further strengthening of the pair to the 1.2174 area, which we did not reach yesterday. A breakthrough of this range will be possible only after reports on the US labor market, which is experiencing problems, and the indicator of consumer confidence in the eurozone. The test of the 1.2174 area from top to bottom forms a good signal to enter long positions already with the aim of reaching the high of 1.2220, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls in the afternoon, after Christine Lagarde’s speech, will not be able to do anything, and trading moves below the level of 1.2130, it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for a downward correction to the more powerful area of ​​1.2089, where the lower border of the new ascending channel passes … I recommend opening long positions immediately on a rebound only after the test of the minimum of 1.2055, counting on an upward movement of 20-25 points within the day. A break of this area will form a new bear market. To short EURUSD requires: Euro sellers will focus on regaining control of the 1.2130 level they missed in the morning. A decline and a test of 1.2130 from the bottom up, as well as a breakout of the moving averages, which are in this range, form an excellent signal to open short positions with the aim of a larger downward correction to the support area at 1.2089, beyond which an active opposition will again unfold. If the bears turn out to be stronger, then the breakout and consolidation below this level will form an additional entry point into short positions, which will quickly bring the euro down to the minimum of the month 1.2055, where I recommend taking profits. A break of this range will open a direct road to the lows of 1.2026 and 1.1986. In the scenario of EUR / USD growth after Christine Lagarde’s speech, it is better not to rush to sell. I recommend to wait until the 1.2174 area is updated and open short positions from there if a false breakout is formed. Selling EUR / USD immediately on a rebound is fashionable only from a maximum of 1.2220, counting on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. I recommend that you read my video forecast for today. Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 12 there was a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend, especially after such a large decline in the euro earlier this year, which allows new large players to enter the market. Vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus continues in Europe, leading to new euro buyers entering the market. The likely approval of the next $ 1.9 trillion bailout plan for the US economy is likely to further erode the US dollar. A limiting factor for the growth of the euro is the risk of extending quarantine measures in February this year, both in Germany and in a number of other European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions increased from 224,832 to 228,757, while short non-commercial positions fell from 81,841 to 72,867. Due to the sharp drop in short positions, the total non-commercial net position increased to 155,890 from 143,902 weeks earlier Indicator Signals: Moving Averages Trading just above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of growth in the short term. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise) will provide support in case of a decline in the pair. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence – moving average convergence / divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands. Period 20: Non-commercial traders – speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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