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plan for the American session on July 14 (analysis of morning deals). The euro is regaining its position after yesterday’s fall.


To open long positions on EURUSD it is required: In the first half of the day I paid attention and focused on the resistance at 1.1799. Let’s look at the 5-minute charts and talk about what happened. We see how the bulls are trying to update the level of 1.1799, but it is impossible to get out of this range. Weak fundamental data on the eurozone leads to pressure on the euro. But the bears’ diligence did not allow them to get even to the support at 1.1773, after which the pair returned and consolidated above the resistance at 1.1799. Testing it from top to bottom formed a point of entry into long positions in the continuation of the uptrend. As a result, the upward movement was about 25 pips and the market stopped at the next resistance – 1.1824. The American session promises to be quite interesting, as the chairman of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell speaks. Everything will depend on how Powell reacts to yesterday’s inflation data. If it takes a tough, unapproachable position, which it has taken recently, the euro may strengthen its position even more. Therefore, buyers in the second half of the day are likely to focus on the breakout and consolidation above the 1.1824 resistance. The test of this level from top to bottom forms a new entry point into long positions with the aim of recovering the euro to the high of 1.1849, where I recommend taking profits. A further target will be level 1.1878. If the pressure on EUR / USD returns in the afternoon, and Powell expresses concern about high inflation, it is best not to rush to buy. The optimal scenario is the formation of a false breakout in the support area of ​​1.1799. It is possible to buy a sail on a bounce, counting on a return upward movement of 15-20 points within a day, only from a larger minimum of 1.1773. To open short positions on EURUSD, it is required: Something Medved is not particularly in a hurry to return to the market, since they are well aware that, most likely, the Fed chairman will take a wait-and-see attitude, using the thesis that the observed growth coincides with the plans of the Central Bank. Only the next formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1824 after the speech of the head of the FRS forms a really good signal to open short positions in the expectation of a fall in the pair to the support of 1.1799. A more further target will be today’s minimum in the 1.1773 area, where I recommend taking profit. In case of further growth of EUR / USD during the American session after the speech of the head of the FRS, no less important task of the bears will be to protect the resistance of 1.1849. Only the formation of a false breakout forms a point of entering short positions in the continuation of the morning bear market. In the absence of sellers’ activity, it is best to postpone selling until the test of the larger resistance 1.1878, which coincides with this week’s high. There, you can immediately sell the pair on a rebound, with a downward correction of 15-20 points calculated. I recommend reading: Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 6, due to a sharp increase in short positions, one could observe a reduction in the overall positive net position. This balance of power does not take into account the growth in the pair that was observed at the end of last week after the European Central Bank raised its inflation target to 2.0% and acknowledged that it will allow the target to be exceeded for some time in the future. building up long positions. Now the focus will be on the meeting of the European regulator, which will be held on July 22, and at which the changes in monetary policy will be announced. Until then, any decline in the European currency will be seen as a good reason to build up long positions. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 209,058 to 212,998, while short non-commercials rose from 121,912 to 135,808. There is no important fundamental statistics for the euro area this week, so the focus will be on US inflation and volume of retail sales. The further direction of the market depends on these indicators. But whatever they are, the key to the growth of the European currency is the recovery of the economy in the summer, so I recommend placing on the growth of risky assets. The total non-commercial net position decreased from 87 146 to 77 190. The weekly closing price dropped from 1.1928 to 1.1862. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to continue the uptrend in the pair; Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. BollingerBands: Growth will be limited around the upper level of the 1.4230 indicator. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.4130. Description of indicators: Movingaverage (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Chart marked in yellow; Movingaverage (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Chart marked in green; Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA (period 12). Slow EMA (period 26). SMA (period9); BollingerBands Period 20; Nonprofit traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements; Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders; Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders; The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. – Source: InstaForex


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