Blacklist of scam sites

Forex Traiding

plan for the American session on May 4 (analysis of morning deals). Stopping before another fall in the area of ​​1.2000


To open long positions on EURUSD it is required: Expectations that the pressure on the euro will persist in the morning today have come true. This is what I emphasized in my morning forecast. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and talk about what happened. As you can see, we failed to wait for a false breakout from the level of 1.2043 and the pair quickly went further down, continuing its Asian trend. The lack of important fundamental statistics helped in this. The formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.2016, where a buy signal was generated, brought only losses, since there was no major upward movement after the return to 1.2016. Now the trade has again moved under the level of 1.2016, so I had to revise the strategy for the second half of the day. Buyers of the European currency will try to defend the support for 1.2001. Only the next formation of a false breakout there (by analogy with the morning buy, which did not materialize) will lead to a signal to open long positions in the expectation of an upward correction to resistance 1.2035. In the afternoon, we will see statistics on the US foreign trade balance and changes in the volume of industrial orders. Weak reports, coupled with the performance of FOMC member Mary Daly, could put pressure on the US dollar, which will lead to a rise in the euro. In this scenario, only a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2035 with a reverse test of it from top to bottom will generate an additional signal to open long positions in the expectation of an upward correction to the area of ​​the maximum 1.2074, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on EUR / USD persists in the afternoon, and the bulls show no activity in the 1.2001 area, I recommend postponing long positions until a larger minimum of 1.1964 is renewed, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction at 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: The bears coped with the first task – they continued the downward Asian correction, which resulted in new sales of the euro. The main task of the sellers for the second half of the day is to break the 1.2001 support. Only a reverse test of this level from the bottom up will form an entry point for short positions with the aim of reaching the minimum of 1.1964, where I recommend taking profits. A further target is the area of ​​1.1925. If the US data disappoint investors and we observe the growth of EUR / USD during the American session: we can count on short positions only in the area of ​​the morning resistance at 1.2035. Formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to sell the euro. If the bears do not show activity in the area of ​​1.2035, and the bulls manage to take this range for themselves, it is best to refuse to sell until EUR / USD reaches a new local maximum in the area of ​​1.2074. Selling the euro from this level can immediately bounce in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. Recommend: I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today. The euro is inclined to decline, and the British pound will continue to grow ahead of an important meeting of the Bank of England on this GBP / USD: plan for the American session on May 4 (analysis of morning deals). Bulls are defending support at 1.3863 and preparing a comeback at 1.3917 Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 27, there was an increase in both short and long positions, but the latter turned out to be more, which led to an increase in the overall non-commercial position. This suggests that active buying of the euro by the players continues and one can bet on further strengthening of the pair after the downward correction. The decisions of the Federal Reserve System on interest rates and monetary policy did not significantly affect the US dollar rate, as well as the next programs proposed by US President Joe Biden to stimulate economic growth in the near future through changes in the tax system. Given that the Fed will continue to adhere to the previous course, even despite the sharp economic jump, it is likely that the demand for risky assets will continue after the decline in the EUR / USD pair earlier this month. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions jumped sharply from 197,137 to 200,415, while short non-commercial positions rose from 116,329 to 119,448, indicating an influx of new buyers with the expectation of continued growth in the euro. The more the euro corrects downward at the beginning of this month, the stronger the demand for it will be. As a result, the total non-commercial net position rose sharply from 80,808 to 80,967. The weekly closing price continued to rise to 1.20795 from 1.2042 a week earlier. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the decline in the euro. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of an upward correction of the pair in the second half of the day, the average border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2040 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9. Bollinger Bands. Period 20. Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. – Source: InstaForex

Related posts
Forex Traiding

US Market: Higher and Higher and Higher! 07.05

Forex Traiding

no trick is expected from the Bank of England

Forex Traiding

Coinbase Global Inc. fell to an all-time low

Forex Traiding

EURUSD - up again 07.05

Subscribe to our newsletter and
Stay up to date

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *