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plan for the European session on April 16. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). Traders are in no rush


To open long positions on EURUSD it is required: Yesterday was a rather strange day. The top data on the growth of the American economy was released, but the volatility of the EUR / USD pair remained at a record low, which did not even allow getting out of the side channel. The data on the volume of retail sales in the United States exceeded the forecasts of economists almost twice, but this did not shake the market either. As a result: only the morning strategy worked, and no other signals were generated. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and break down the entry point. It can be clearly seen how, after several unsuccessful attempts to break above the 1.1987 range, a false breakout is formed, which leads to the formation of a good entry point to short positions in anticipation of a downward correction, which was about 25 pips, with 40 pips of intraday volatility. Considering how the market has been ignoring fundamental data lately, it is unlikely that today’s inflation report in the eurozone will have a strong impact on the euro, especially since its growth is expected according to preliminary estimates. The initial task of buyers will be to protect the 1.1946 support, which I revised from yesterday’s 1.1953 level. The formation of a false breakout there will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the continuation of the bullish trend. In this case, we can count on a return to the resistance at 1.1981. Only its breakout and consolidation above, with the test from top to bottom, forms a new entry point into long positions with the prospect of a return to 1.2047, where I recommend taking profits. The further target will be the high at 1.2109. In the scenario of no bulls activity in the 1.1946 support area, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the larger 1.1916 area, from where you can buy EUR / USD immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next support is seen around 1.1880. To open short positions on EURUSD it is required: Sellers yesterday failed to break below the level of 1.1953, only moving it to the 1.1946 area. All we managed to do was to defend the large resistance at 1.1987, which has now transformed into the level 1.1981. The further direction of EUR / USD will depend on these two areas today. The initial task of the bears for the first half of the day is to get back under the control of the support at 1.1946. Very bad inflation in the euro area will lead to consolidation below this range, the test of which from the bottom up forms a point of entry into short positions, which will increase the pressure on the pair and push it to the area of ​​the minimum of 1.1916. In case of a breakthrough of this range, you can further sell the euro with the expectation of a return to the 1.1880 support, where I recommend taking profits. If the demand for the euro persists in the morning today, and the data on the consumer price index will please traders, I recommend postponing short positions until a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of ​​1.1981. Selling EUR / USD on a rebound is possible only from a new large high of 1.2047, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day. I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today. GBP / USD: plan for the European session on April 16. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). Buyers of the pound did not cope with the level of 1.3804, so the pressure on the pair may return at any time Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 6, the indicators of long and short positions have undergone a number of changes – short positions have grown strongly, which indicates the preservation of the market under the control of euro sellers. Long positions continued to decline, which led to another drop in the positive delta. Last week was filled with a number of fundamental statistics, but more attention was attracted by the meeting of the International Monetary Fund, at which a number of agreements were reached to extend the debt deferral program until the end of this year and an initiative was created to support the poor countries most affected by the coronavirus. Last week, there was also a lot of talk about the bureaucratic delay in the implementation of the EU Recovery Fund, which so far really limits the upward potential of the euro in the near future. For this reason, in the medium term, the market remains on the side of the sellers of risky assets, which may lead to further formation of a downtrend. Investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the dollar more attractive. This week’s inflation data may seriously affect the balance of power in the market in favor of dollar buyers. The first signs of the formation of a medium-term bullish trend will be possible only after the lifting of restrictions and the restoration of the services sector in the eurozone, which will increase hope for an improved economic outlook and return the EUR / USD to an upward trend. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 194,764 to 192,230, while short non-commercial positions rose from 121,024 to 124,708. As a result, the total non-commercial net position continued to decline and amounted to 67 522 against 73 739 a week earlier. But the weekly closing price rose to 1.1816 against 1.1768 last week. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible decline in the euro in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.1981 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pair. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator around 1.1953 will increase pressure on the euro. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. – Source: InstaForex

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