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plan for the European session on April 8. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). British pound


To open long positions in GBP / USD, you need: If Tuesday was just a great day for trading the British pound, then yesterday we broke the indicated levels, then 5-7 points did not reach them, the market turned in the other direction, making it impossible to earn. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and break down the entry points. In the first half of the day, the next formation of a false breakdown at 1.3814 at the beginning of the European session inspired confidence in the scenario of an upward correction, as I expected a good report on the UK services sector and an increase in the composite PMI. However, after a while, the bears achieved a breakdown of this range, which led to a fall in the pair and losses. Some time later: at the moment of the reverse test of the level 1.3814 from the bottom up, a good signal was formed to open short positions during the continuation of the bear market, however, it was not possible to wait for a large downward movement even here. After falling by 18 points, the pair turned around and the bulls took control of the 1.3814 level. In the afternoon, the levels were revised, but nothing good happened there either: the breakout of 1.3774 did not give a reverse test, which did not allow entering short positions (I marked with blue lines the condition under which I would sell the pound). We did not reach about 5 pips even before buying for a rebound from support at 1.3719. Selling on the reverse test of the level of 1.3774 in the middle of the American session was not the best decision, as there was no quick downward movement and it was just lucky that the pound fell below 1.3774 by the end of the day. Important fundamental statistics on the UK are not expected today, and data on the construction sector is unlikely to help the British pound strengthen its positions. Therefore, buyers’ focus in the first half of the day will be on the protection of the new support 1.3735, which was formed yesterday at the end of the day. Only the formation of a false breakout there with confirmation of the divergence on the MACD indicator will lead to a signal to open long positions in order to restore the pound to the resistance area of ​​1.3786, where I recommend taking profits. Moving averages, playing on the side of the sellers of the pound, also pass there. The further target will be the high at 1.3834. If the bulls do not show much activity at the 1.3735 low, most likely the pressure on the pair will return: in this scenario, it is best to postpone purchases until the test of the larger 1.3704 low, or open long positions from the large March support at 1.3670 immediately on a rebound, expecting an upward correction in 25-30 points within a day. To open short positions on GBP / USD it is required: Sellers have fully coped with their tasks in the afternoon, not letting the pound above 1.3786. Today during the European session the emphasis will be shifted to the support at 1.3735. A breakout and consolidation below this level with the opposite of its tests from the bottom up will form another entry point to short positions with the aim of reducing GBP / USD to a new minimum of 1.3704, where I recommend taking profits. The further target will be the support 1.3670. However, before selling on the breakout of 1.3735, you need to make sure that no divergence is forming on the MACD indicator, which now limits the entire downside potential of the pair. In case of growth in GBP / USD in the first half of the day, I recommend not to rush to sell: the optimal scenario will be short positions, provided a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of ​​1.3786, where the moving averages are also located. I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from the larger resistance 1.3834, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today. EUR / USD: plan for the European session on April 8. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). The bulls failed to gain a foothold above 1.1893. Now you need to defend the level 1.1859 Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 30 recorded a reduction in both long and short positions, while the total non-commercial net position increased. Bulls have been active in the past week with every approach of the pound to major support levels, which has led to such a mess in the market. The data released on the UK economy made it possible to build a new upward correction for the pound, albeit so far only in the short term. Confidence continues to grow among investors and economists that the UK economic recovery is gaining quite good momentum, which will support the British pound this summer, as disagreements grow at the Bank of England over how the economy will develop further and when everything is needed. to react. Those who expect to buy the pound should take a closer look at the market. So: long non-commercial positions fell from 51 843 to 47 222. At the same time, short non-commercial positions fell 30 024 to 22 263, which indicates a serious revision of forces in the market in the near future. As a result, the non-profit net position rose to 29,959 from 21,819 a week earlier. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.3774 from 1.3859. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bears to continue the downtrend. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3810 will act as a resistance. The lower border of the indicator around 1.3704 acts as a support. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. – Source: InstaForex

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