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plan for the European session on February 26. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). American

DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-02-26 06:33:45 To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Judging by what is happening now: large players are returning to the market and volatility will only increase. Nothing interesting happened yesterday in the morning, but the American session was much more interesting. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and break down the trades. The formation of a false breakout and a return under the level of 1.2178 formed a signal to open short positions, but this did not lead to a normal downward movement. Then another breakdown of resistance 1.2178 took place, however, I did not wait for a reverse test of this level on the reverse side and was forced to miss the rise to resistance 1.2220. Selling on a rebound from this level led only to a downward correction by 11 points, after which the euro continued its growth. After the consolidation and the reverse test of the 1.2220 level (where I recommended buying the euro), a signal was formed to enter the market. The maximum upward movement from this level was 25 points. By the middle of the American session, data on the US came out, which turned out to be much better than the forecasts of economists, which ultimately provoked a fall in the euro. However, after the breakout of the 1.2220 area, the reverse test of this level did not take place, so I was forced to miss the move down to support 1.2178. Now the technical picture has changed a lot. Although it is too early for the buyers of the euro to panic, they should try to regain control over the resistance at 1.2190 as soon as possible. This can be done only in the case of good reports on the growth of spending and the consumer price index of the eurozone countries. Fixing and testing this level from top to bottom forms an excellent entry point into long positions. In this case, it will be possible to count on a return back to the resistance of 1.2239, where I recommend taking profits. The further target will be the high at 1.2294. In the scenario of a decline in EUR / USD in the first half of the day, it is best to wait for the formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.2140, which has already been tested today at Asian trading, and only then open long positions as the pair continues to grow. If the pressure on the euro persists, and the bulls show no activity in the area of ​​1.2140, then I recommend postponing buying for a rebound until the test of support at 1.2093, from where you can expect an upward correction of the pair within the day by 20-25 points. To open short positions on EURUSD it is required: The bears are trying to get the market under their control, but yesterday’s fall is nothing more than a slight downward correction in the pair. It is still too early to talk about the formation of any new trend. For this, the sellers of the euro should prove themselves at the level of 1.2190. The formation of a false breakdown there, together with bad data on the eurozone, will surely increase the pressure on the pair, which will lead to a new downward movement to the level of 1.2140. Fixing and testing this area from the bottom up will form another entry point to short positions with the aim of further movement to the area of ​​the minimum at 1.2093, where I recommend taking profits. A further target for sellers will be the area of ​​1.2037. In the scenario of EUR / USD growth above the resistance of 1.2190, and there we also have moving averages playing on the side of the bears, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for the test of this month’s maximum in the 1.2239 region and open short positions from there with the expectation of a decline in 20-25 points within a day. I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today. Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 16, there were no special changes in the positions of large players, which again indicates the temporary equilibrium of the pair before a new wave of its growth this spring. Another major decline in the pair down last week was won back, and this once again confirms the theory that the US dollar continues to be less and less in demand among investors. Therefore, a more correct approach to the market should be to buy the European currency for the medium term. A good plus for the euro will be the moment when European countries begin to actively roll back quarantine and isolation measures, and the service sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR / USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose 220,943 to 222,895, while short non-commercial positions rose from 80,721 to 82,899. As a result, the total non-commercial net position fell slightly after rising to 140 006 from 140 222. The weekly closing price was 1.2132 against 1.2052 a week earlier, which indicates the presence of buyers in the market. Indicator signals: Moving averages The trading is just below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bears to take the market under their control. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the average border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2200 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2140 will increase the pressure on the pair. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Material provided by InstaForex – Source – InstaForex

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