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plan for the European session on January 20. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). Pair of measurements in



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-20 07: 03: 00To open long positions on EURUSD it is required: In my forecast yesterday, I said that good data on business sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone led to a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2102, and the reverse test of this level from top to bottom, which I highlighted on the chart, led to the formation of an excellent entry point into long positions with the aim of EUR / USD growth to the resistance area of ​​1.2142. This level was updated in the second half of the day, and the formation of a false breakout there led to an excellent entry point to short positions in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-25 points, which happened. At the current moment, the technical picture has changed and the whole emphasis is placed on the level of 1.2130, on which the further direction of the pair will depend. In the morning we are expecting a report on inflation in the eurozone, and if it turns out to be better than the forecasts of economists, then we can expect further growth of the euro. As long as trading will be carried out above the 1.2130 area, the demand for the euro will also be at a fairly high level. In the scenario of a decline in EUR / USD, the formation of a false breakout in the area of ​​1.2130 will be another proof of the presence of large buyers in the market. An equally important task for the bulls will be to update the resistance at 1.2174, where it will be possible to observe the next profit taking. A breakthrough of this range will be possible only in the afternoon, when Joe Biden is inaugurated. The test of the 1.2174 area from top to bottom forms a good signal to enter long positions already with the aim of reaching the high of 1.2220, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls are unable to do anything in the first half of the day in the support area of ​​1.2130, it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for a downward correction to the more powerful area of ​​1.2089, from where you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward movement of 20-25 points within the day. A breakout of this area will form a new bear market. To short EURUSD requires: Euro sellers will focus on breakout and consolidation below 1.2130 support. Bad fundamental data on the eurozone economy and inflation will increase the pressure on the euro. A breakout and test of this level from the bottom up will form a new signal to open short positions and open a direct road to the level of 1.2089, where the moving averages, playing on the side of the bulls, pass. Further growth of the pair depends on this range, so its breakout will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and to a larger movement of EUR / USD down to the area of ​​1.2055, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of further growth of the euro, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for the resistance update at 1.2174, where only the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions. I recommend selling EUR / USD immediately on a rebound from the level of 1.2220, counting on a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day. Much will depend on what Joe Biden says after his inauguration, which could have serious pressure on the US dollar. I recommend that you check out my video forecast for today. Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 12 a sharp rise in long positions and a reduction in short ones. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend, especially after such a large decline in the euro earlier this year, allowing new major players to enter the market. Vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus continues in Europe, leading to new euro buyers entering the market. The likely approval of the next $ 1.9 trillion bailout plan for the US economy is likely to further erode the US dollar. A limiting factor for the growth of the euro is the risk of extending quarantine measures in February this year, both in Germany and in a number of other European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions increased from 224,832 to 228,757, while short non-commercial positions fell from 81,841 to 72,867. Due to the sharp drop in short positions, the total non-commercial net position increased to 155,890 from 143,902 a week earlier Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates further growth of the euro. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger Bands The breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2145 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A breakout of the average border in the area of ​​1.2130 will increase the pressure on the pair. Description of the indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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