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plan for the European session on June 11. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). Sharp movements


To open long positions on EURUSD it is required: Yesterday market volatility was at a fairly high level. This is due to the decision of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, as well as to the report on inflation in the US, which helped the bears to keep the pair within the sideways channel. Let’s take a look at the 5 minute chart and see what happened. In my morning forecast for the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level 1.2152. The bears tried to break below this range, but this one did not work out very well. Before the test of the level, just a few points were missing, so it was not possible to achieve the formation of a false breakdown there for the move to long positions. In the second half of the day, the situation developed in a completely different way: the formation of a false breakout in the area of ​​resistance 1.2185 led to the formation of an entry point to short positions, which quickly pushed the pair to support 1.2152. There, the bulls did everything to protect this level and they did it pretty well. False breakout and rise back to the resistance of 1.2185 was the response of the euro buyers. The second part of the American session was calmer, however, even then the bears managed to return the pair to the level of 1.2185, creating another entry point for short positions there. You can familiarize yourself with everything in more detail in my video forecast for today. Today, in the first half of the day, the release of important fundamental statistics on the eurozone is not expected, therefore, volatility promises to be quite restrained. It is unlikely that the reports on inflation in Spain and France will be able to have a positive impact on the euro. The main task of buyers for the European session is to protect the support 1.2177, where the moving averages are on their side. Formation of a false breakout in this range generates a signal to open long positions in order to return to the resistance of 1.2215. A breakout and test of this area already from top to bottom on the volume can form an entry point to long positions in the expectation of a new uptrend in order to renew the high of 1.2250. A larger resistance level is seen around 1.2283, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of the absence of bulls’ activity in the area of ​​1.2177, it is better to postpone long positions until the test of support at 1.2144, from which one can also enter the market only if a false breakout is formed. I recommend buying EUR / USD immediately on a rebound from the minimum of 1.2105, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day. To open short positions on EURUSD, it is required: Bears will fight to get the market back under control, and for this you need to protect the large resistance 1.2215, which also acts as the upper border of the side channel, in which the pair spends the whole week. Only the formation of a false breakout there generates a signal to sell the euro with the aim of reducing to the area of ​​the middle border of the side channel 1.2177. Although the level is intermediate, the current intraday market direction depends on it. Weak data on inflation in European countries will lead to its breakthrough. The test 1.2177 from the bottom up forms an additional signal to sell EUR / USD in order to return to the lower border of the side channel 1.2144, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the minimum of 1.2105, but we will reach it only in case of very strong data from the University of Michigan on the American economy. In the absence of bears’ activity in the area of ​​1.2215 today in the morning, I recommend postponing short positions until the resistance test of 1.2250, where you can immediately sell the pair counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points. The next serious level is at the new local resistance 1.2283. I recommend that you read: Results of the ECB meeting. Annual inflation in the US is already at 5%. Forex video forecast for June 11 EURUSD: the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank and the report on inflation in the United States have kept the balance in the market and the balance of power GBP / USD: the plan for the European session on June 11. Commitment of Traders COT reports (analysis of yesterday’s deals). The bulls have done a serious job of protecting the lower border of the channel and recovering the pound Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 1 noted an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones, which indicates an increase in demand for the European currency in the last month of the second quarter of this year. The European economy is expected to show a particularly strong recovery in the summer, which will lead to new growth of the European currency in the area of ​​annual highs. The lifting of a number of quarantine restrictions, which are still in effect in European countries, will lead to an even greater revival of the economy, which will give it momentum through an increase in retail sales and inflation, which, according to the latest data, has seriously increased in the eurozone. The data on activity in the manufacturing and service sectors also continue to delight economists, which again indicates a serious recovery. Any strong downward movement of the EUR / USD pair is now perceived by traders as a good opportunity to gain long positions in the continuation of the bull market. The dollar can only hope that in the summer the Federal Reserve will start talking in all seriousness about reducing the volume of purchases of bonds, but we will know about this only by mid-June. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions jumped from 236 103 to 237 360, while short non-commercial positions fell from 132 103 to 128 038. This indicates an influx of new buyers with the expectation of continued growth of the euro, and a wait and see attitude on the part of sellers. Considering the fact that the pair recovered seriously last Friday, this may indicate the formation of a new uptrend and the return of EUR / USD to local highs. This is where the bulls will continue to accumulate long positions in the expectation of going beyond them. This indicates a possible breakdown of the highs of the last month in the near future and the continued growth of the euro. The total non-commercial net position rose from 104,000 to 109,322. The weekly closing price also increased from 1.22142 to 1.22326. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which so far indicates the sideways nature of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2165 will lead to a major downward movement of the euro. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2190 will strengthen the position of the euro. I recommend for your reference: I recommend that you familiarize yourself with the COT report and the forecast of the GBPUSD pair for today. The EU-UK Sausage Wars have been postponed until June 30th. ECB meeting through the meeting Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. – Source: InstaForex

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