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Review of the GBP / USD pair. April 8. The IMF believes that rich countries will emerge from the crisis with little or no loss.


4-hour timeframe Technical data: Major linear regression channel: direction – up. The lowest linear regression channel: direction – down. Moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -192.8999 British pound sterling fell down on Tuesday and continued to decline on Wednesday. Thus, as we said in the article on the euro currency, the euro and the pound are now moving in completely different ways, which raises some questions. In the article on the euro / dollar, we have already made an assumption that the “speculative” factor is now slowly disappearing from the pound sterling. Therefore, if the euro currency is now showing a natural growth due to the next increase in the money supply in the United States, then the pound sterling, which previously showed much stronger growth than the euro, cannot repeat this path. Of course, this is only a hypothesis so far. No one knows for certain whether speculators, who had previously held long positions in the British currency, have really begun to leave the market. But it seems to us that the above version has the right to life. Whether it is true or not, time will tell. At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that the US economy is recovering rapidly and the country may return to full employment next year. This is confirmed by an earlier report by the IMF, which also noted the high rates of recovery of the American economy, which, according to the organization, will not even feel that there was a crisis next year. The American economy, according to the IMF forecasts, has almost completely returned to the pre-crisis trajectory of economic growth. That is, it has not only reached pre-crisis levels, but is also approaching the growth levels that were projected for 2021 and 2022 before the pandemic. Yellen also noted that the recovery of the US GDP will lead to the growth of the world economy. Although, in principle, this is understandable. The growth of Mongolia’s economy will also lead to the growth of the world economy. Also, the US Treasury Secretary noted that the government still has a lot of work to eliminate the consequences of the economic crisis and pandemic. “We need to be careful not to give up stimulating the economy too early,” Yellen said. Indirectly, the Treasury Secretary acknowledged that the United States would not rush to wind down the quantitative stimulus program or raise rates. The same idea has been repeatedly voiced by the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Thus, in the coming months, there will be no talk even about a reduction in the asset repurchase program. The current level of the economy, which is strange, Janet Yellen estimates as unsatisfactory, since the unemployment rate is still too high. But the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva also noted the negative consequences of overcoming the crisis for all countries of the world. The head of the IMF stressed that the total public debt of all countries of the world is approaching 100% of world GDP. She noted that the high level of public debt was noted before the pandemic, but now it has increased even more, as the governments of all countries of the world had to provide assistance to their economies. “Revenues have decreased, while expenses have increased,” says Georgieva. Also, the President of the IMF noted that the growth of the total national debt was mainly due to the developed and rich countries, which have much more opportunities to service their debts than poor countries. Also, the IMF report said that most of the developed countries will be able to get out of the crisis with minimal losses. This is thanks to strong vaccination programs and the ability to boost government borrowing and spending in times of crisis. But in developing and poor countries, the echoes of the crisis and pandemic will be observed for a very long time. This is clear even from the fact that in many countries of the world the vaccination process has not even begun yet. Rich countries share vaccines with poorer ones, but, naturally, they are primarily interested in their own population. For example, the European Commission recently noted that it is stopping the export of vaccines because it has already provided sufficient assistance through the COVAX program. Moreover, the organization itself is mercilessly criticized for the low rates of vaccination within the European Union. Thus, everything is as usual. Any crisis is a time when the rich will become even richer and the poor even poorer. This mechanism also works at the state level. Returning to the pound sterling, it should now be noted that the price has consolidated below the moving average line, which means, from a technical point of view, the downward trend has been resumed. In the near future, the quotes of the pound / dollar pair may overcome the two previous local minimums of 1.3702 and 1.3669. If this happens, then the chances for the continuation of the downward movement will increase many times. And the euro currency may continue to grow. We have repeatedly said that if we take into account the fundamental background from the UK, then the pound sterling should be trading near the 30th level for a long time. The economy in Britain is far from its pre-crisis levels, although high rates of vaccination suggest an accelerated recovery. It remains only to find out whether the speculators who have kept the pound so high over the past six months have really decided to leave the market. The average volatility of the GBP / USD pair is currently 92 pips per day. For the pound / dollar pair, this value is “average”. Thus, on Thursday, April 8, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3650 and 1.3834. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upwards may signal a new round of upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3733 S2 – 1.3702 S3 – 1.3672 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3763 ​​R2 – 1.3794 R3 – 1.3824 Trading recommendations: GBP / USD pair on a 4-hour timeframe the pair began a downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in sell orders with targets at 1.3702 and 1.3650 until the Heiken Ashi indicator reverses upward. Buy orders should be opened in case of overcoming movings with targets at 1.3885 and 1.3916 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Recommended reading: Review of the EUR / USD pair. April 8. The IMF and the head of Amazon have supported Janet Yellen’s idea of ​​creating a single corporate tax in the world. Trading signals, COT report: Forecast and trading signals for the EUR / USD pair for April 8. Forecast and trading signals for the GBP / USD pair for April 8. – Source: InstaForex

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