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Review of the GBP / USD pair. January 14. Boris Johnson “became” a medic. Relations between China and the UK are heating up.



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-14 03: 06: 164-hour timeframe Technical data: Major linear regression channel: direction – up; Younger linear regression channel: direction – up; Moving average (20; smoothed) – up. CCI: 78.2880 British the pound sterling against the US dollar on January 13 continued to rise in price for most of the day. The main reason for the resumption of the upward trend, or at least a new round of the upward movement, we called the statements of the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey the day before yesterday. True, as we said in yesterday’s article, market participants ignored most of the sayings, and worked out only positive aspects. Nevertheless, at the moment, we can state the exit of the pound sterling quotes back to 2.5-year highs, located near the Murray level “+1/8” – 1.3702. Overcoming this level with a high degree of probability will provoke a new movement to the North, although now it is rather difficult to imagine what the fundamental bases of this movement will be? In this case, it turns out that one speech by the head of the Bank of England, which was also interpreted in a very peculiar way by the markets, provoked a three-day growth of the pound by more than 250 points … Although, if we recall the “high volatility swing” mode, such a movement is very logical. In general, the pound / dollar pair continues to move in jerks, breaking 300-400 points in one direction for a short period of time, after which it turns in the opposite direction and starts a new “fast and strong” movement. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that China is to blame for the emergence of the “coronavirus”, which used the treatment using pangolins. The head of Great Britain said this at a meeting of world leaders in environmental protection. “The practice of using pangolin scales to maintain male strength is insane. The coronavirus pandemic was the result of an imbalance in human relationships with nature. The virus originated from bats or pangolins, because of the silly idea that the crushed scales of this animal will somehow give you strength, ”said Johnson, sharply criticizing the alternative medicine used in China. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry has already replied to Johnson: “This serious discussion should not involve people who only speculate and make a fuss.” At the same time, London made an official statement that the rules of trade with China will be tightened due to human rights violations in the Uygur Autonomous Okrug. Let us recall that the “Uyghur issue” has long been of concern to many countries of the world and the world community. It has been repeatedly reported that human rights are being violated in relation to this people, slave labor is used and the laws are simply not respected. Last year, the United States imposed sanctions against China due to the oppression of the Uyghurs, and now London is also joining them. “The UK government announces a review of the ability to export products to Xinjiang and the introduction of financial penalties for businesses that do not comply with modern slavery laws,” – said in a statement from the British Foreign Office. On the other hand, remember what was the hype about Hong Kong before the coronavirus pandemic! Both Washington and London, which has an agreement with Beijing, according to which Hong Kong should remain autonomous until at least 2048, were going to impose a whole list of duties and sanctions on China due to the adoption by China of the law “on internal security”, which, in fact, neutralized autonomy of the metropolis. London has repeatedly stated that Beijing is violating international agreements and has threatened to suspend any business with the Middle Kingdom altogether. However, in practice, no one canceled anything, because business comes first. Thus, the situation with the Uighurs can also be used only for populist purposes. “This package will help ensure that no UK organization, government or private sector, knowingly or unintentionally, benefits or contributes to human rights violations against Uighurs or other minorities in Xinjiang,” said British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab. time, the epidemic of “coronavirus”, its third wave is slowly beginning to recede in the UK. Recall that the number of daily cases of the disease a week ago increased to almost 70,000. For example, during the second, November “wave”, the maximum value was 33,000 diseases per day, and during the first “wave” – ​​6 thousand. Now the incidence rates have dropped to 45-50 thousand per day, which is still a lot. However, it should still be noted that the British pound does not react in any way to these data. Doesn’t react in any way to the possible deterioration in the economy, which Andrew Bailey said almost openly the day before yesterday (thesis about GDP in the fourth quarter). Consequently, technical factors remain in the first place. Even the factor of a trade agreement between London and Brussels has already been played out a couple of dozen times. The British currency cannot go up forever simply on the basis of a deal! The “swing” that has been going on for several months is even more straining. Naturally, in a “swing” environment, it is extremely difficult to trade and this is understood not only by ordinary traders, but also by large players. The latest COT report showed minimal growth in the number of new open contracts. The total number of open contracts by a group of professional traders (“Non-commercial”) is four times less than, for example, in the euro currency. Thus, many are now simply afraid to deal with the British currency. And we warn traders that now is not the best time to work out the pound / dollar pair. From a technical point of view, the quotes have once again consolidated above the moving average, but in the current conditions this does not mean anything. Today the pair may drop by 150-200 points, and tomorrow – by the same amount. Thus, paradoxical as it may seem, the uptrend persists, but the swing persists. The average volatility of the GBP / USD pair is currently 116 points a day. For the GBP / USD pair, this value is “high”. On Thursday, January 14, we therefore expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3516 and 1.3748. An upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a new round of upward movement within the “swing.” Recommendations: The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe has started a downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to trade down with the targets of 1.3580 and 1.3519 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider buy orders with the target of 1.3702 if the price bounces off the moving average line or the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. Recommended reading: EUR / USD pair overview. January 14. The Republican leader in the Senate will decide the fate of Donald Trump. Mike Pence Rejects 25th Amendment to the US Constitution. Trading Signals, COT Report: Forecast and Trading Signals for the EUR / USD pair for January 14. Forecast and trading signals for the GBP / USD pair for January 14. Material provided by InstaForex – www .instaforex.comSource – InstaForex

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