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Review of the GBP / USD pair. January 18. The UK aims to vaccinate the entire adult population by September 2021.



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-18 03: 04: 384-hour timeframe Technical data: Major linear regression channel: direction – up; Younger linear regression channel: direction – up. Moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways CCI: -24.4627 The British pound sterling continues to trade according to its own rules. In fact, the pound / dollar pair retains a “high-volatility swing”, about which we have written more than once. Three unsuccessful attempts to overcome the 1.3700 level at once led to a new round of the downward movement. At the moment, the quotes of the pair have again consolidated below the moving average line, so the trend has formally changed to a downward one. However, in fact, we have been observing a “swing” with a slight upward slope for several months now. During this time, the pair changed the direction of movement three times and overcame the MA. However, there can be no classical practice in the current conditions. The pair changes direction too often. Moreover, at the moment it is even difficult to imagine what this is connected with. On the contrary, in 2021 there should have been some relaxation of market participants. Brexit is finally over, a trade deal with the European Union has been concluded. However, instead of more calm trading, we see an ongoing storm. Thus, the pair can easily go down another 150-200 points and then resume its upward movement and return to 1.3700, or it can resume its movement to the North immediately on Monday. As we said earlier, there is little news from the UK now. The topic of the “coronavirus” attracts the most attention. Moreover, for example, in the States there is no longer such attention to the epidemic. Yes, quarantine remains in many states, but there is no such panic, or, better to say, such a serious attitude towards the pandemic. However, in Britain there really is something to worry about. The country has seen a three-fold increase in the number of cases in recent weeks. A “British” strain has been identified in the country, which is 50-70% more infectious than usual. The country is in quarantine and in two senses of the word at once. Boris Johnson announced an internal “lockdown”, and many countries of the world cut off all communications with the Kingdom in order to prevent the spread of the very same “British” strain. However, there is some good news. In recent days, incidence rates have declined. In addition, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the government plans to complete the vaccination procedure for the entire UK adult population by September 2021. It is also reported that almost 3.5 million Britons have already received a vaccine against the “coronavirus.” At the same time, Scotland is strengthening quarantine measures in connection with the worsening situation with COVID-2019. Scots are now forbidden to pick up ordered goods online by self-pickup, and all catering establishments are prohibited from letting visitors inside, even to issue orders. People are asked not to leave the house unless absolutely necessary. Perhaps this is all news from the UK. As you can see, they absolutely do not prevent the British currency from staying near 2.5-year highs. Meanwhile, in the United States, the future President of the country Joe Biden is not going to rest on his laurels for a long time and celebrate the victory. He is determined to start correcting Donald Trump’s mistakes and develop the country as early as possible. This was announced by the future chief of staff of the White House Ron Klein. He said that in the near future Biden will sign about 10 decrees that will deal with the most pressing crisis issues, in particular, climate change, the fight against racial discrimination and the “coronavirus” epidemic. Klein also said that Trump intends to return the United States to the Paris climate agreement on the very first day of his presidency, but all this news now has no meaning for market participants. Unfortunately. As we have already said in the article on the euro / dollar, this greatly complicates and simplifies the process of analysis and forecasting. In the case of the pound sterling, it only complicates, because the technical picture is complex and ambiguous. Thus, now, in order to predict the movement of the pound / dollar pair, no fundamental background is needed, no macroeconomic reports are needed, and the “technique” on the 4-hour timeframe does not clarify. The only thing that can be done is to trade on lower timeframes looking for shorter-term trends. The movements that take place on the 4-hour timeframe are very fast, but on the hourly timeframe they can form short-term trends that you can try to work out. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to make an assumption about what can change the current market situation. If the euro / dollar currency pair moves at least more or less logically, from a technical point of view, then the pound / dollar moves absolutely chaotic and randomly. Thus, it is also not a bad decision to stop trading this pair for a while. Traders also do not pay any attention to the economic indicators of the UK and USA. We have said more than once that the British economy will suffer losses in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first in 2021. Unlike the American one. This is confirmed by official figures and forecasts. However, this is also not taken into account by traders who continue to get nervous and still buy more pounds than dollars. The average volatility of the GBP / USD pair is currently 120 pips a day. For the GBP / USD pair, this value is “high”. On Monday, January 18, we therefore expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3463 and 1.3703. An upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a new round of upward movement within the “swing”. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3580S2 – 1.3550S3 – 1.3519 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3611R2 – 1.3641R3 – 1.3672 Recommendations: The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe has started a new round of the downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to trade down with the targets of 1.3550, 1.3519 and 1.3489 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider buy orders with a target of 1.3702, if the price consolidates above the moving average line. Recommended reading: EUR / USD pair overview. January 18. 15 false sayings of Donald Trump. Washington prepares for Biden’s inauguration ceremony with the help of the military. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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