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Ruble exchange rate predicted in New Year



+ A – “Green” and herringbone In Soviet times, few people were interested in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar. Now the rate of the national currency is interesting for both the president and citizens. Its dynamics reflects where we are heading – towards economic growth or recession, where the ruble will push prices, besides, there are more and more subjects of the financial market among Russians, and for them the dynamics of exchange rates is already a business. So with what course will we celebrate the New Year? Experts argue. And among them are analysts from banks and other financial companies, and for them the foreign exchange market is like a kitchen for a housewife. This means that the first conclusion is traditional: everything can be. More specifically, the new trend is that there has been a clear increase in optimistic analysts lately, those who see the ruble strengthening by the end of the year. For example, here is the opinion of Georgy Vashchenko from Freedom Finance Investment Company: “The inflow of funds to funds aimed at Russia continues. In November, the volume of receipts to these funds amounted to about $ 1 billion. Investments in ruble bonds are increasing. It is possible that carry trade operations resumed on fears of further weakening of the dollar, while the ruble with an oil price of about $ 50 per barrel and a debt burden of less than 20% of GDP in the coming month is able to maintain relative stability and even strengthen if the positive dynamics of oil continues. Moody’s does not exclude an increase in oil prices to $ 65 per barrel in the medium term, although it maintains a more conservative forecast for the next year. Non-residents’ money again flowed into Russian debt bonds, oil tightened – you don’t have to worry about the ruble. But why then Aleksey Antonov from Alor Broker warns: “It is very risky to bet on the strengthening of the ruble. Most likely, by the end of the year the ruble will become much cheaper. Explanations can be heard, for example, from Marcel Salikhov from the Institute of Energy and Finance. In conversation, he focuses on the prospects, on the one hand, of oil prices, and on the other, the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions. The conclusions are as follows: despite the disagreements and the sounded threats to withdraw from OPEC + some countries, the cartel survived. This already contributed to the rise in oil prices, but this growth has an obvious limiter – the disputes in OPEC + clearly showed that even with a further insignificant rise in prices, pressure towards more active softening of production conditions will resume, it is no coincidence that OPEC + decided to return to quotas every month. From this we conclude: “You shouldn’t expect oil prices to rise above $ 50 per barrel next year.” As for geopolitical risks, Biden’s arrival in the White House will increase them, but at first he will not have time for them. “For the ruble, this means that short-term political risks are not as great as it seemed a month and a half ago. … We believe that the potential for ruble strengthening has not yet been realized. The current equilibrium value relative to the prevailing oil prices, inflation and interest rates is in the range of 70–72 rubles, ”Salikhov believes. Optimism was thus justified. As for the remaining doubts, they are not at all groundless. The fact is that the ruble can survive some, if I may say so, euphoria, but very short. The ranks of OPEC + will be tested for strength on a monthly basis, and sooner or later, the new US president will definitely return to tightening anti-Russian sanctions. The moment of the holiday is short. Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” # 28441 of December 15, 2020 Headline in the newspaper: Exchange rate from Santa Claus

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