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Russian stock market crashed

Last Tuesday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (-0.88%) and RTS (-2.08%) finished the main trading with an uneven decrease in relation to the levels of the previous close. At the end of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange index (IMOEX2) dropped 1.16%. Thus, the ruble index of the Moscow Exchange markedly retreated down from the March all-time high. Nevertheless, there is still a positive medium-term technical picture in it. As for the RTS dollar index, it came under pressure due to the renewed weakening of the Russian currency. By the way, the exchange rate of the US dollar yesterday renewed its five-month high against the ruble. Meanwhile, yesterday’s state of the external background could hardly be called negative. Moreover, within the day we observed a fairly large-scale correctional increase in the price of oil futures. As we can see, the usual external factors yesterday faded into the background in importance for the participants in Russian trading. Investors and speculators fear a possible escalation of tensions in the Donbas. The forerunner of this potentially dangerous situation was the well-known events of the spring of 2014. Then we saw a panic wave of sales in the shares of Russian companies. The current rise in geopolitical tensions is inextricably linked with the threat of tougher external sanctions against the Russian Federation. Among significant external events, it is worth noting the active discussion that began in the bowels of the US legislative system of the possibility of adopting the infrastructure plan of President Joe Biden. There is no consensus on this issue even among the Democrats. There are serious doubts about the advisability of the proposed increase in the tax burden on corporations in order to finance an additional stimulus package for the US economy. This story could become one of the main reasons for speculation in the stock markets in the coming months. On Wednesday morning, June futures on the RTS index (RIM1) are traded in a backwardation state of 22 points, or about 1.5% against the underlying indicator. Thus, the derivatives market participants retain a moderately negative assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index. Against the background of a fairly strong decline in the Moscow Exchange index following the main and evening trading sessions, the most liquid stocks closed mostly with a decline within 1-3%. The leaders of the fall among blue chips were securities. Sberbank-jsc (SBER RM, -2.52%), MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN RM, -2.34%), VTB (VTBR RM, -3.32%), Rosneft (ROSN RM, -2.25%), Tatneft-jsc (TATN RM , -2.38%), Magnet (MGNТ RM, -2.74%). As we can see, representatives of various market sectors have undergone active sales. The drop in these securities took place in the absence of significant corporate news. This can be interpreted as a sign of a reduction in the volume of large profitable positions. There is such an opportunity so far due to the proximity of the MICEX index to its historical maximum. Shares of gold mining companies distinguished themselves with a natural increase against the falling market: Polyus (PLZL RM, + 3.54%), Polymetal (POLY RM, + 2.70%), Petropavlovsk PLC (POGR RM, + 2.42%), Lenzoloto-jsc (LNZL RM, + 2.78%), Lenzoloto-up (LNZLP RM, + 0.83%), Seligdar-jsc (SELG RM, + 1.01%). Yesterday, these securities played their characteristic role of defensive instruments. In addition, interest in them was fueled by the continuing weekly corrective recovery in the value of gold futures. On the daily chart of the above contracts, a “double bottom” technical figure has almost formed. In case of successful implementation, gold futures can move 3-6% higher, in the range of 1800-1840 p. Dividend shares of Surgutneftegaz-up (SNGSP RM, + 0.05%) managed to avoid falling along with the market. This was due to the recent news that the issuer recorded an increase in annual net profit under RAS by almost 7 times, to the level of 729.28 billion rubles. The estimated amount of annual dividends on these securities is about 6.72 rubles. That’s about 15.8% of their current price. This morning, US stock index futures show a slight change in value within 0.1%. Brent crude oil contracts gained 0.2%. Gold futures lost 0.3%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.5%. Japanese Nikkei225 gained 0.1%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as uncertain or mixed. This creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a restrained deviation. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a moderate change in the range of 0.1-0.3%, in the range of 3485-3505 p. The levels of 3480, 3460 p. Will be significant resistance levels. 3520, 3540 p. After opening with a restrained deviation, the Moscow Exchange index with a high degree of probability will go into a state of consolidation. Possible intraday attempts at corrective growth will be constrained by the lack of clear support from the ambiguous external background. In the afternoon, Russian traders will habitually focus on the dynamics of oil prices and the nature of the opening of the stock market overseas. Among a number of foreign statistical indicators, weekly data on oil and oil product reserves from the US Department of Energy (17.30 Moscow time) will have the maximum practical significance .___________________ Vitaly Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Algo Capital Investment Company

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