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Russian stock market ignores sanctions



At the moment, the RTS index is in positive territory (+ 0.92%). This week the “puzzle” for the “bulls” was successful. New US anti-Russian sanctions turned out to be minimal. In addition, there has been a tangible decrease in geopolitical tensions. The US President wants to meet with the Russian President. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he does not plan a military solution to the problem of Donbass. Zelensky called the situation in Donbass “controlled”. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu this week announced the imminent withdrawal of the Russian army from the border with Ukraine. I think investors are happy that they can forget about geopolitical tensions and focus on economic issues. In particular, on the reporting of US companies, on dividend strategies. The reporting season for US companies is fraught with pleasant and unpleasant surprises. Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported last quarter losses of nearly $ 3 billion in the first quarter, although it saw revenue rise as travelers slowly returned on board. Adjusted loss before tax: $ 2.9 billion versus $ 2.25 billion expected by analysts. Let me remind you that the company’s management was planning to start break-even work starting from December last year. It did not work out … Managers cannot predict the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Delta continues to block mid-range seats through the end of April on all of its flights, with many long-haul flights closed and short-term profits. CEO Ed Bastian believes passenger confidence is returning. But not everything depends on him. There will be a success of mass vaccination and long-distance directions will open – the company will be profitable. All these twists and turns are reflected in the chart. Yesterday quotes dropped down (-2.46%) on the local March uptrend. Breaking down the mark 46 is an undesirable scenario for the “bulls”. In this case, the sideways dynamics can gain a foothold for a long time, because the quotes are likely to decline to 44.5. From the point of view of speculation, the action is wonderful, as any news on vaccines sets the quotes in motion. In terms of investments, I’m not sure about the prospects for this stock. The consensus forecast of American analysts is 53.94, which is only 4% above the March high. It turns out that when there is an exit from the sideways consolidation, it turns out that the fundamental upside potential of the stock is small. The ruble is strengthening today. Since the second and third quarters are not the best times in terms of the balance of payments, I do not expect miracles from the ruble. The situation is aggravated by the fact that recently Russia has lost a part of foreign markets for oil sales. Russian oil exports in the first quarter of 2021 decreased by 22% compared to the same period in 2020. It is difficult to imagine that in such a situation we will see a strong strengthening of the ruble. Demand for Russian Urals crude oil decreased, revenue decreased. I see support at 75.2 and 74.7 on the USDRUB chart. The issue of strengthening the ruble to 72.5-73.5 is the issue of the fourth quarter. Unless there is another aggravation on the geopolitical front ._____________________ Andrey Vernikov, Head of Investment Analysis and Training Department, IG UNIVER Capital

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