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Russian stock market is moderately positive despite summer liquidity


Last Tuesday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (+ 0.04%) and RTS (+ 0.53%) completed the main trading with an uneven increase in relation to the levels of the previous close. Following the evening session, the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) lost 0.30%. Thus, the ruble index of the Moscow Exchange over the past day showed a slight deviation. This is a completely natural result, taking into account yesterday’s ambiguous state of the external background. As for the more noticeable change in the RTS dollar index, it was due to the volatility of the exchange rate of the domestic currency. The medium-term technical picture in the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices did not change at the end of yesterday’s trading. It remains positive despite the very early end of the summer dividend cut-off season on the Russian stock market. Among the significant external events, it should be noted unexpectedly strong statistics, which indicated an increase in exports from China in June by 32.2% compared with the same indicator a year ago. This should be assessed as an indirect sign of active recovery of the global economy, which should support prices for hydrocarbons and metals. Yesterday it became known about the increase in the consumer price index in the US in June by 5.4%. The value of this indicator significantly exceeded expectations. It is quite natural that it was perceived through the prism of how much it can accelerate the start of the inevitable future start of curtailing the existing stimulus measures. It is also worth noting the continuing “significant silence” of OPEC + regarding the revision of the total quota for oil production since August this year. In our opinion, this is a very sly position. We are witnessing a form of “verbal intervention”. This time it takes place in the form of delaying the market’s expected decision. Agreeing to increase production in the face of current high prices for “black gold” is not a real problem. Apparently, the decision on this topic will be announced closer to the beginning of August. Wednesday morning, September futures on the RTS index (RIU1) are trading in a state of moderate backwardation of 25 points or about 1.5% against the underlying indicator. Over the past 24 hours, the derivatives market participants slightly worsened their assessment of the mid-term prospects of this index. Against the background of a slight deviation of the Moscow Exchange index following the main and evening trading sessions, the most liquid shares closed with a multidirectional change within 1-4%. The growth leader among blue chips was once again shares of Alrosa (ALRS RM, + 3.09%). In these securities the recent publication of strong sales results of the issuer for June continues to recoup. In addition, there were encouraging news about the current state of the global diamond market yesterday. International Diamond Mining Corporation De Beers has raised rough prices for the fifth time in eight months. In addition, Alrosa plans to take part in the July auction of Gokhran diamonds in order to replenish its own reserves. Recall that at the end of last year, the opposite possibility was discussed amid a weak market. In terms of industry, the securities of metallurgical enterprises looked much stronger than the Moscow Exchange index: MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN RM, + 2.19%), NLMK (NLMK RM, + 1.44%), Severstal (CHMF RM, + 2.40%), MMK (MAGN RM, + 2.91%), Mechel-ao (MTLR RM, + 3.62%), Mechel-up (MTLRP RM, + 3.71%). Yesterday’s increase in the value of these shares was mainly corrective after a significant mid-term downturn. The publication of NLMK Group operating results for Q2 was also moderately positive for the iron and steel sector. and 6 months. 2021 They indicated a 5% qoq increase in steel production and an 11% qoq growth in physical sales. We add that the comparison of the current performance of NLMK Group with the operating results of the middle of last year is not indicative, since that period was the acute phase of the “coronavirus” crisis. 1.36%). Today they will have a dividend gap. But some holders of these shares chose not to wait for annual dividends, but to fix the medium-term profit in these securities. This morning, futures on US stock indices are showing a moderate decline in value within 0.2%. Brent crude oil contracts fell 0.1%. Gold futures added 0.2%. The Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite sank 0.5%. Japanese Nikkei225 lost 0.3%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as moderately negative. This creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a moderate decline. An additional factor of weakness of this index will be the dividend gap in Gazprom shares. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a decrease within 0.5-1.0%, in the region of 3840-3860 p. The levels of 3830, 3800 p will act as the nearest support for it. Significant resistance will mark 3870, 3890 points. In the first minutes of trading, the Moscow Exchange index will noticeably drop due to the dividend gap in Gazprom shares. Later, it is likely to stabilize around the opening level in anticipation of new signals for directional movement. In the afternoon, Russian traders will habitually focus on the dynamics of oil futures and the nature of the opening of the US stock market. Among a number of foreign statistical indicators, weekly data on changes in oil and oil products reserves from the US Department of Energy (17.30 Moscow time) will have the maximum practical significance .________________ Vitaly Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Investment Company Algo Capital


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