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Russian stock market renewed tops

Last Thursday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (+ 0.59%) and RTS (+ 0.93%) completed the main trading with a significant increase in relation to the levels of the previous close. At the end of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) rose 0.88%. Thus, despite the mixed state of the external background on the Russian stock market, optimism prevailed yesterday. Towards the end of the main trading session, the Moscow Exchange ruble index moved close to its recent all-time high. Still, local stock bulls lacked the confidence to update it, as traders were constrained by the weaker-than-expected nature of the weekly US initial jobless claims statistics. Their number increased to 965 thousand. This is the worst value in the last 20 weeks. The medium-term technical picture in the Moscow Exchange index remains positive. But do not forget about its accumulated overbought, which complicates further growth. Moreover, a correctional recession has long matured on the local stock market. But while technical factors are receding into the background under the influence of not entirely justified optimism on the stock markets in the Russian Federation and the United States. Meanwhile, investors and speculators are encouraged by the expectations of the adoption of the next stimulus package in the United States. Yesterday, US President-elect Joe Biden unveiled a plan to support the North American economy worth about $ 1.9 trillion. By the close of the evening trading session, the March futures on the RTS Index (RIH1) went into a contango of 4.4 p. Or about 0.3% against the benchmark. Derivatives market participants were close to a neutral assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index. Against the background of a fairly strong increase in the Moscow Exchange index following the results of the day and evening trading sessions, the most liquid stocks closed mostly with an increase within 1-5%. The securities of the steel companies Severstal ( CHMF RM, + 3.95%), NLMK (NLMK RM, + 3.79%) and MMK (MAGN RM, + 4.10%). Moreover, during the day, MMK shares were able to almost completely win back the dividend gap that took place there the day before. The expediency of purchasing these securities in the medium term at current prices is questionable. Now they look overbought, as well as the ruble index of the Moscow Exchange. Let’s not forget about the autumn increase in the MET for metallurgical enterprises. On the other hand, over the past year there was a significant weakening of the domestic currency. This is an objective factor in favor of a positive revaluation of the ruble value of shares of exporting companies. It should also be noted that the value of certain representatives of the oil sector is growing ahead of time: Lukoil (LKOH RM, + 3.16%), Rosneft (ROSN RM, + 3.92%), Gazprom Neft (SIBN RM , + 2.50%), Tatneft-up (TATNP RM, + 1.97%). The interest in them is supported by relatively high oil prices. In general, the oil and gas sector lagged behind the market in 2020. For this reason, it has good potential for catching up growth over a time horizon of up to six months. Against the backdrop of an optimistic market sentiment, liquid shares of the gold mining companies Polyus (PLZL RM, -2.24%) and Polymetal (POLY RM, -1.53%) were trading weaker than the market. Sales in them are also facilitated by the medium-term dynamics of futures for the yellow metal. On the day of the recent storming of the Capitol in Washington by protesters, gold contracts renewed their two-month high. But later they turned down very quickly and sank quite strongly. One of the few interesting corporate news of the day was the announcement that the Magnit retail chain (MGNT RM, -0.64%) plans to launch credit products as well as the virtual operator Magnit Mobile. If the “tenths” became the era of the victory of retail chains over single retail outlets, then in the “twenties” ecosystems can significantly squeeze out retail chains and banks, which are closed only within the framework of a core type of activity. This morning, futures on US stock indices are showing a noticeable drop in value in within 0.4-0.6%. Brent crude oil contracts fell 0.7%. Gold futures lost 0.1%. The Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite slipped 0.5%. Japanese Nikkei225 dropped 0.1%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as negative. This creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a significant decrease. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a decline of about 0.2-0.5%, in the region of 3475-3485 p. The levels of 3460, 3450 p. Will be significant resistance levels. 3490 marks will remain significant resistance. 3500 points In the first minutes of trading, the Moscow Exchange index will win back the morning worsening of the external background. Later, it is able to continue falling to the area of ​​3450-3460 p. This is facilitated by the accumulated medium-term overbought of the local stock market. In the afternoon, a large number of significant macroeconomic indicators will be published in the US. The December statistics on changes in the volume of retail sales overseas (16.30 Moscow time) can have an indirect impact on Russian stock indices ._________________ Vitaliy Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Investment Company Algo Capital

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