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the dividend gap could help revive growth. Technical analysis of the stock market for July 14, 2021


SBERBANK. High opening and going into the negative zone. In this situation, we opened a short position on the third option (sold 10,000 shares at 306.01). The day was closed with a black candle and the position was moved to today. At the same time, there are two black candles in a row on the weekly chart. This combination of candlesticks is not very typical and with a high probability one can expect a third black weekly candlestick. At the same time, Russian shares are now slightly overvalued relative to Brent Oil (by about 4.1%). Thus, the “calculated” value (RTS = 20.6 * Brent, where c-nt 20.6 is the EMA-400 value on the weekly chart) is 76.45 * 20.6 = 1574.9 points, and the exchange value is about 1,638.9 points. In such a situation, we will try to keep the short. GAZPROM. An unpleasant black candlestick, and the market came out of the overbought zone. Usually, such an exit does not encourage renewed growth until the RSI indicator drops to the 50-60 percent region. However, today there will be a dividend gap, which will formally lead to a fall, and in fact and the experience of previous years may contribute to the resumption of growth. For the third consecutive white candlestick, the quotes exceeded the level of the EMA-89 moving average and reached the resistance level. At the same time, the weekly candlestick came out in the form of a black hammer, which is not optimistic. In such a situation, the continuation of growth and the emergence of an upward trend does not seem very likely. Another white candlestick and we are long. At the same time, quotes exceed the four-month uptrend line and the level of the EMA-55 moving average. In such a situation, the traditional weakness after the dividend gap is most likely over and growth may continue. Thus, we will try to keep the “long”. RECOMMENDATIONS1. The market is trading with an increase in prices (1) by yesterday’s close (above 303.0 / 283.0 / (25662)), at the beginning of trading 303.0-310.0 /283.0-287.4/ (25662-25890) (likely): · hold long positions; · do not open new ones positions; Short positions can be closed at any time, or a Stop Loss can be placed around 305.8 / 296.3 / .2. The market opens up with a gap (above 307.3 / 287.0 / (25730)) and trades above 310.0 / 287.4 / (25890) (unlikely): 3. The market is trading lower prices (1) to yesterday’s close (below 303.0 / 283.0 / (25662)) at the start of trading 303.0-299.4 /283.0-279.7/ (25662-24830) (likely): long positions can be closed at any time, and you can place a Stop Loss around /293.2/ ;· not open long positions; · you can open short positions in the GMK, and a Stop Loss around (25880); · hold short positions. 4. The market opens with a gap down (below 302.0 / 282.1 / (24985)) and trades below 299.4 / 279.7 / (24830) (unlikely): 5. RTS / Brent: the ratio is 21.26 and remains below the EMA-55 moving average on the weekly chart. We observed something similar in 1998 and 2007-2008, when there was a long decline after the peak. In such a situation, we continue to believe in the continued dependence of the stock market on Oil and the return of the ratio to the middle of the usual range of 18-22. Sberbank – a moderate decline remains very likely Gazprom – in the previous 2 years the dividend was closed during the month MMC reached the resistance level Magnit – we continue to hold a long position ______________ Roman Tarasov, Deputy Head of Analytical Research Department, UNIVER Capital


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