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The ruble confidently advances the dollar and the euro



On Monday, February 8, the ruble continued its successful attack on the dollar and euro. By the close of trading on Monday, the US dollar rate fell by 36 kopecks in “tomorrow” calculations. (-0.49%), to 74.28 rubles, and the euro lost another 38 kopecks. (-0.43%), having decreased to 89.56 rubles. We again expect 74-75 rubles for today at the dollar rate, and 89-90 rubles at the euro rate. The price of Brent oil on Monday exceeded $ 60 and began a confident assault on the $ 61 per barrel mark, which had a positive effect on the ruble. And the dollar continued to weaken against the world’s reserve currencies: the DXY dollar index fell again on Monday and continues to decline today. Meanwhile, the European Commission announced that, together with the European Central Bank, they are exploring the possibility of introducing a digital euro, which apparently forced the dollar to retreat. On the Russian market, a positive background, in addition to growing oil, on Monday was formed by the confirmation by the international agency Fitch Ratings of the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation at the investment level “BBB” with a “stable” outlook. Nevertheless, threats to the ruble remain. A speech by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, which hinted at the introduction of new sanctions against Russia, as well as the continued tough course of the Trump administration towards China, could prevent the further strengthening of the ruble, despite the rise in oil prices. Today, since the opening of trading, growth continues again: Brent adds another 0.68%, rising to $ 60.83 per barrel, and a barrel of WTI also renews price highs and rises in price by 1.7%, to $ 58.89. Thus, the prices of benchmark oil grades reached the pre-crisis levels of January 2020. The price of Brent, if it remains above $ 60 per barrel today, may further rise to $ 63-64 per barrel. Today we forecast at a Brent price of $ 60-61.3 per barrel. Apparently, the main driver of price growth was the growth in demand in China, to which, according to Bloomberg, 127 tankers from different exporting countries are sent, which bring almost 250 million to China. barrels of oil. The international oil corporation Royal Dutch Shell commented on this event as a fact confirming a significant resumption of growth in oil demand in the PRC. In addition, the beginning of mass vaccination against “covid” in the world creates additional expectations for a quick recovery of the world economy, including an increase in oil demand. The Russian stock market continued its confident rise on Monday. The RTS index grew by 2.13% to 1462.22 points. The Moscow Exchange index climbed 1.57% to 3445.9 points. According to the results of Monday, the dynamics of the better than the market were shown by the shares of the retailer M.Video (+ 9.61%), the energy company TGK-2 (+ 6.3%) and the biotechnological company HSCI (+ 5.42%). The growth of M.Video shares could be due to the fact that the company will hold an Investor Day today, where it will probably talk about its dividend policy. The underperforming shares of the energy company Rosseti Lenenergo (-1.51%), depositary receipts of the Mail.ru group (-1%) and the producer of mineral fertilizers PhosAgro (-0.8%). Today, the RTS index can trade in the range of 1450-1480 points, the Moscow Exchange index – within 3440-3470 points .________________________ Natalya Milchakova, Deputy Head, IAC Alpari

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