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The ruble continues the New Year’s offensive

In the absence of significant drivers, global markets are groping at the start of this year’s last trading week. The only news for investors was Trump’s signing of the draft budget for 2021, which includes a $ 900 billion fiscal stimulus package. This turned out to be enough to ensure a positive start for trading on global exchanges, although overall trading activity is low after the celebration of Catholic Christmas and on the eve of the New Year. for its protective status following the signing of a long-awaited stimulus package amid the ongoing pandemic. In addition, after unsuccessful attempts to reduce, which were observed during the Asian session, oil returned to growth and now again tends to the level of 52 dollars per barrel. This combination of factors pushed the dollar / ruble pair to the area of ​​73.40 rubles, and now the level of 74 rubles. again acts as resistance. Despite the upward bias, the bullish potential of the Russian currency will be limited in the short term. Moreover, in a thin market, volatility surges are not excluded, which may lead to a local reversal in the event of a recovery in the dollar index. In other words, the probability of a confident breakdown of the level at this stage is 73 rubles. Meanwhile, the euro / ruble pair, after two days of aggressive fall, remains under pressure, but slowed down the bearish move, settling directly below the 90 rubles mark, which remains in the spotlight after the correction from the highs of early November, marked above the level of 92 rubles. last week .________________ Mikhail Kogan, Head of Analytical Research, Graduate School of Financial Management

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