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The ruble is at risk of collapse on the eve of the New Year



On Thursday, EU and British leaders finally reached an agreement on a trade deal, bypassing the tough divorce proceedings that investors feared. However, this did not cause a violent reaction – the markets showed only a short-term surge of optimism, and by the end of the day they minimized growth. This behavior is due to two factors. Firstly, a little earlier, the players managed to include in the price the approval of the Brexit deal. Secondly, the delicate pre-holiday trading, which today is not held at all in connection with the onset of Christmas in the Catholic world, affected the dynamics of the Russian market, which today will have to bargain alone, was influenced by the behavior of the ruble. Our currency continued to rise, having regained losses incurred since the beginning of the week, which led to a drawdown in the Moscow Exchange index and a natural rise in the RTS. The ruble ignored speculation about Washington’s preparation of new sanctions against Nord Stream 2, having long developed immunity to such statements. As a result, by the close of trading, the dollar / ruble pair slipped below the level of 74 rubles, to which the focus of attention of the players shifted from the local resistance in the area of ​​75.60 rubles. During trading on Friday, the amplitude of fluctuations in Russian assets is likely to be even lower, given the absence of external landmarks including oil. Brent managed to recover above the level of $ 50 a barrel after a short-term drawdown, but failed to grow. At the same time, the rise of the ruble runs the risk of stalling – for the confident passage of the level of 74 rubles. an additional factor of pressure on the dollar will be required, which may not appear. Moreover, profit taking is not excluded, which will send the Russian currency into negative territory following the results of the five-day trading period ._________________ Mikhail Kogan, Head of Analytical Research Department, Higher School of Financial Management

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